How Trump's return puzzles North Korea's elite

Nov. 22 (UPI) -- As news of Donald Trump's re-election begins to ripple through North Korea's top echelons, surprise and curiosity are inevitable reactions among its high-ranking officials. How could a former president return to office after being out of power? For those used to the rigid succession of power in North Korea's single-family dynasty, this democratic turn of events would be both puzzling and thought-provoking. In a country where political power is synonymous with the Kim family's rule, the notion that a president could lose an election, regroup, and come back to power seems almost otherworldly.

For North Korea's senior officials, knowledge of global events, including U.S. presidential elections, comes through highly controlled channels. Unlike ordinary North Koreans, who may never hear about Trump's victory, officials at the Central Committee, the Cabinet, and department director levels receive this information through confidential documents known as 'reference newspapers,' which are distributed in secret. The Party's highest leaders also attend restricted briefing sessions under Kim Jong-un's supervision. It's a tightly managed system, ensuring that only a select few are informed about events beyond North Korea's borders.

When I was still in North Korea, I first heard of George W. Bush's election in the early 2000s through one of these reference newspapers. The concept of democracy, where presidents are chosen by popular vote and serve limited terms, seemed remarkable. At that time, as is likely the case now, many officials expressed fascination and skepticism. The idea that leadership could be anything other than hereditary, or that a leader could be publicly scrutinized and replaced was hard for us to fathom, trained as we were to accept that only the Kim family could rule North Korea. Even so, some officials could not deny there was an advantage to a system where fresh leaders could bring new perspectives and ideas.

The structure of the U.S. election is strikingly different from North Korea's. In the United States, leaders are held accountable through the voting process, a stark contrast to North Korea's ironclad system of succession, where Kim Il-sung's descendants rule unchallenged. To North Korean officials, the idea of a former president being ousted and then winning back the support of his people would be seen as something akin to a political miracle -- particularly when compared to their lifelong pledge of loyalty to the Kim family.

It is natural for North Korean officials to compare their political system with the U.S. system when exposed to this information. Trump's return, following a brief hiatus from power, stands in stark contrast to the rigidity of North Korea's succession structure. Some officials might even privately wonder about the merits of a system where a leader's hold on power is not absolute and can be challenged by the people's voice.

Yet, despite any fleeting admiration for the democratic process, these officials remain pragmatic. North Korea's nuclear ambitions, embedded in the state's core ideology and championed by Kim Jong-un, are unlikely to change under any circumstances. While Trump's re-election may lead to renewed U.S.-North Korea negotiations, officials know better than to expect substantial changes. The high hopes North Korean officials once had during previous summits with Trump --hopes that sanctions might be eased or lifted -- were swiftly dashed when nothing materialized. By now, they understand that the presence of nuclear weapons makes it unlikely that the international community will ease sanctions. Even if Kim meets Trump again, the officials likely anticipate that the same stalemate will ensue, as long as Kim refuses to abandon his nuclear arsenal.

The broader international landscape adds further complexity. Trump's recent statements about ending the Russia-Ukraine war have sparked speculation about a potential shift in North Korea's relationship with Russia. Only recently, North Korea and Russia signed a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement," marking a deepening of their military cooperation. If Trump successfully negotiates an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it could result in a decrease in North Korean-Russian military cooperation. Such a development would reshape Northeast Asia's security landscape, impacting not only North Korea but also its complex relations with Russia and China.

This evolving situation may push North Korean officials to consider adjustments in their foreign strategy. China has historically viewed North Korea's close relationship with Russia with caution, even disdain. Should North Korea lose Russia's support, it may find itself gravitating back toward Beijing, rekindling the delicate alliance that has long defined its relationship with China.

While North Korean officials are well aware of the precariousness of their position, Kim Jong-un likely views Trump's re-election as an opportunity to leverage his diplomatic approach to the United States. Trump's foreign policy aims, which may include the prestigious goal of a Nobel Peace Prize, would require him to make tangible progress on issues like denuclearization. For Kim, this could be the moment to feign cooperation, possibly offering a few concessions or outdated nuclear facilities in exchange for sanction relief and a guarantee of regime security. This, in turn, could allow Kim to sustain his nuclear program while reaping significant benefits from the United States.

If Trump and Kim were to reach such an agreement, it would carry significant risks for the stability of the Korean Peninsula and the wider Northeast Asian region. A deal that appeases both leaders' immediate interests but leaves North Korea's nuclear capability largely intact would create a lingering threat to regional security. Such a scenario could compel South Korea to seek independent security measures, amplifying instability across Northeast Asia. Meanwhile, North Korea's population would continue to suffer, deprived of both freedom and economic opportunity under an oppressive regime focused solely on sustaining its nuclear ambitions.

The alternative scenario is that Trump uses his remaining time to pursue a genuine path toward North Korean denuclearization. If he were to achieve full denuclearization, it could represent a diplomatic breakthrough of historic proportions, potentially securing peace for the Korean Peninsula and liberation for North Korea's people. This path, however, demands not only Trump's resolve but also sustained international collaboration and pressure, with the South Korean government and the U.S. State Department playing pivotal roles in consistently conveying the risks posed by a nuclear North Korea.

The next four years under Trump's leadership will undoubtedly shape North Korea's future and could redefine the security dynamics in Northeast Asia. Kim Jong-un's regime, North Korean officials, and the people of North Korea will all watch closely, aware that the actions taken in Washington may have life-altering implications. As someone who once witnessed North Korea's inner workings, I urge the U.S. administration to approach North Korea with cautious optimism, balancing diplomacy with unwavering resolve. Only by understanding the intricacies of the regime and preparing for the worst can we hope to steer the Korean Peninsula toward a future of genuine peace and stability.

Ri Jong Ho is a former senior North Korean economic official who served under all three leaders of the Kim family regime. His most recent role was in Dalian, China, where he headed the Korea Daehung Trading Corporation, overseen by the clandestine Office 39 under the direct control of the ruling Kim family. Before his assignment in Dalian, Jong Ho held pivotal positions, including Executive Director of the Daehung General Bureau of the North Korean Workers' Party, a role equivalent to Vice-Minister rank in the North Korean party-state. Subsequently, he was appointed Chairman of the Korea Kumgang Economic Development Group (KKG) under the North Korean Defense Committee by Kim Jong Il. Jong Ho is a recipient of the Hero of Labor Award, the highest civilian honor in North Korea. Following a series of brutal purges by Kim Jong Un, he defected with his family to South Korea in late 2014. Currently, Jong Ho resides in the greater Washington D.C. area.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.