Advertisement

Ukraine annexation could be beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin

By Matthew Sussex, Australian National University
Russian President Vladimir Putin signs documents formally annexing four regions of Ukraine on Friday. Photo courtesy of Kremlin Pool | <a href="/News_Photos/lp/f02a7f2ee15ddcf5590f29c400b2fc14/" target="_blank">License Photo</a>
Russian President Vladimir Putin signs documents formally annexing four regions of Ukraine on Friday. Photo courtesy of Kremlin Pool | License Photo

Oct. 3 (UPI) -- President Vladimir Putin's bizarre ceremonies formalizing Russia's annexation of some 15% of Ukraine once again revealed the yawning chasm between Kremlin triumphalism and reality.

Never mind Russian forces didn't even fully control the territories Putin brought under the Russian flag. Never mind Russia's "referendums" were a blatant fabrication -- with voting often held at gunpoint. Never mind that by now more people have fled Russia than the 300,000 extra troops to be "partially mobilized" in support of Putin's flagging war effort. And never mind that Russian forces are retreating in many of their newly acquired lands, with the key city of Lyman liberated by Ukraine less than 24 hours after its annexation was announced.

Advertisement

Putin's vitriolic rantings to a decidedly subdued audience provided plenty of distasteful sound bites. He referred to the West as satanists with "various genders," calling for holy war against the transsexual Western bogeymen. His characterization of Americans as neo-colonialists was laughably hypocritical since Putin was literally in the process of announcing the recreation of an empire.

Advertisement

He made references to Catherine the Great, claimed southern Ukraine had always been Russian and liberally invoked the imperial term "Novorossiya." NATO expansion, supposedly the trigger for Russia's existential security crisis that left it with no option but to invade its neighbor, barely got a mention in Putin's tsunami of xenophobic bile.

RELATED U.S. will impose 'severe costs' on those who support Russia's annexation of Ukraine

But the real story of Putin's latest melodrama is that he has unequivocally bet his political survival on "victory" over Ukraine and the West.

Crucially, there are definite signs his grip on power is starting to fray, even if Putin's demise may still be some way off.

Internal crises

Dictators often meet their ends through inadvertent overreach. So, too, Putin's new fragility stems from his own choices. Obsessed with recreating a footprint over what he believes are Russia's historical lands, and determined to blame the West as the global embodiment of moral decrepitude, Putin has created his own existential threat.

Yet his invasion of Ukraine has been an utter disaster. His conventional forces have been revealed as a chimera: poorly trained, poorly led, hopelessly corrupt and often badly equipped.

This is becoming an internal threat that his domestic messaging is struggling to explain.

RELATED Zelensky praises countries backing Ukraine application to join NATO

What were sold as glorious Russian victories were repelled, got bogged down and then became embarrassing retreats, forcing Kremlin propagandists to simultaneously try to put out multiple spot fires. But spinning defeats as temporary setbacks can only work for so long. And finding others to blame, from false conspiracies about NATO forces fighting alongside Ukrainians, to criticism of field commanders for failing Russia, is also a temporary solution.

Advertisement

Eventually it will become patently obvious that the one man who isn't permitted to be criticized -- Vladimir Putin -- is ultimately in charge of the mess.

Implicitly this is already happening. Margarita Simonyan, Putin's chief cheerleader in Russia's tightly controlled media landscape, has suddenly dissociated herself from politics, plaintively claiming she has no political authority.

When loyal mouthpieces start trying to look dispassionate, it's time for dictators to worry.

Abandoning political center

The enigma of Putin and Putinism is that he has never really offered a guiding vision for Russia, despite being effectively the Kremlin's longest-serving leader since Joseph Stalin. He has tended to avoid identifying with a particular ideological position and isn't even a member of United Russia, the party invented to represent his interests in Russia's parliament.

Instead, Putin has presided over a centralized authoritarian government, playing divide-and-rule with different Kremlin cliques, and elevating friends and cronies while also occasionally purging them. Indeed, Russia has a system of bureaucratic bargaining between power ministries and powerful individuals that isn't completely alien to what we witness in the West.

But in Putin's Russia, the strength of vertical lines of authority means major contests around policy aren't mediated by discussion, debate or other expressions of preference. Rather, they're decided by the will of one individual.

Advertisement

This has served Putin well in the past, allowing him to present the face of a political "centrist" whose choices soften the extremism of ultranationalists and communists and keep him aloof from petty politics. But battlefield failures have required him to lurch to the far right. That side of Russian politics has never completely supported Putin, even though it remains beholden to him to retain political influence. It is also weakly supported by the population, and many of its leaders are figures of ridicule.

Hence Putin is betting on his ability to drag popular sentiment with him. True, Russia's phony democracy ensures he won't be removed at the ballot box, and appetites for public protest remain low. But he will be expected to take actions even more unpopular than his botched partial mobilization, which has been abruptly walked back.

His critics, like the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, have called on Putin to announce martial law in Russia's border regions, and use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Doing so will not just hasten Russia's military defeat, but will weaken Putin further domestically.

Scapegoating

In the past, Putin has been able to purge with impunity. The military, the security services and various oligarchs who displeased him have all at some point felt Putin's wrath.

Advertisement

But Russia's failures in Ukraine cannot be isolated to a few bad generals, or bad information from Russia's foreign intelligence service, the SVR. They are systemic, revealing flaws across Russian strategic thinking, military planning, economic management, intelligence analysis and political leadership.

The more the failures mount up, the less tenable Putin's selective scapegoating becomes. He has replaced military leaders rapidly, and is reportedly issuing orders directly to field commanders, including refusing to allow them to fall back and regroup.

Intelligence assessments confidently arguing Ukrainians would welcome the Russian invaders were premised on Putin's own reading of the situation, published in a 2021 screed that painted Ukrainians as little more than wayward Russians. Moscow's overconfidence in its sovereign wealth fund has been insufficient to insulate vital parts of the Russian economy against Western sanctions.

And Putin's belief the West would fold in the face of weaponized Russian energy seems only to have strengthened its resolve.

Of course, none of this means Putin will be overthrown tomorrow. He retains broad and deep control over Russia's population, and over the elites he permits to serve him. But his earnest projections of strength belie his increasing vulnerability. By mobilizing his population to fight in Ukraine, Putin has broken his compact with the people. And by attempting to shift the blame for failure wholesale onto his subordinates, he has, for the first time, created an incentive for elites to unite against him.

Advertisement

For a stark indication of how much Putin's political fortunes have changed, we need only look at the new confidence of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky. Having survived an attempted Russian decapitating strike in February, Zelensky is overtly calling for regime change in Russia.

Responding to Putin's demand that Ukraine return to the bargaining table, Zelensky observed that he "will not hold any negotiations with Russia as long as Putin is the president of the Russian Federation. We will negotiate with the new president."

The end of Putin? It might come sooner than you think.

Matthew Sussex is a fellow at the Strategic and Defense Studies Center at Australian National University.The ConversationThis article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

Latest Headlines

Advertisement
Advertisement

Follow Us

Advertisement