An Israeli soldier walks next to military weapons displayed for the media at Amiad military camp in northern Israel on Tuesday. the army said the equipment and weapons were uncovered throughout the ground operation in south Lebanon. A 60-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah came into force on November 27. Photo by Atef Safadi/EPA-EFE
BEIRUT, Lebanon, Dec. 31 (UPI) -- The unthinkable in the troubled Middle East happened in 2024, with a major geopolitical shift after the stunning collapse of the Syrian regime at the hands of Islamist rebels. And Iran lost its foothold in the region, as did its most powerful military arm, Lebanon's Hezbollah.
It was also a year of human tragedies in Gaza amid Israel's continued military offensive that killed nearly 45,000 people, including 17,000 children, and displaced 1.9 million, while 11,000 are thought to be buried under the rubble.
The besieged Gaza strip was largely destroyed, but Hamas is still fighting, and the 14-month war remains unresolved.
Israel, which suffered a severe blow on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas staged its daring "Operation Al Aqsa Flood" that killed 1,200 Israelis, responded with extreme force and justified its military actions by citing "existentialist threats."
Turning to Hezbollah, which joined the fight in support of Gaza, Israel decided to eliminate its leaders and dismantle its military infrastructure. The Iran-funded militant group lost most of its top officials and military commanders, including its long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, while its headquarters, bases, arms depots, tunnels and financial arm were destroyed.
With Hezbollah extremely weakened by Israel's intensified attacks, Iran suffered its first strategic setback.
"Iran and its proxies turned from being a simple security threat for Israel and security menace in the region to an existentialist threat to Israel and a global threat to the major powers," Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, told UPI.
Iran, Kahwaji said, once was seen by the West as a "possible useful ally" against extremist Muslim Sunni groups, such as al Qaeda and ISIS, and its actions were tolerated.
That changed after the Hamas attack when its armed proxies -- Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq -- began to hit deep inside Israel in support of Gaza.
Iran crossed the "red line" when it attacked Israel in April and again in October to avenge the killing by Israel of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, Ismael Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, and a senior Iranian commander. It also wanted to retaliate for an Israeli air strike on an Iranian consulate complex in Damascus.
"We saw Israelis treat this existential threat more forcibly with unlimited support from the U.S. and Europe that enabled them to destroy Gaza, eliminate Hamas leadership and downgrade it substantially," Kahwaji said.
Hezbollah faced the same fate and had to stop supporting Gaza by accepting a cease-fire agreement to end its bloody conflict with Israel.
But the major shift came with the quick fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, another key regional ally of Tehran, in early December.
The quick collapse of Assad's regime dealt another severe blow to Tehran, which was forced to withdraw from Syria along with Hezbollah, which lost its most important supply route from Iran through Syria.
Iran suddenly lost its influence and long years of investment in Syria and Lebanon. It was left with no real proxy.
According to Sam Menassa, a political analyst and former executive director of the La Maison du Futur research institute, Iran has become "a source of threat" to U.S. security and interests.
Menassa said the overthrow of Assad was "a completion to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon ... and to uprooting Iran from the region, at least from the Levant."
"They all came as part of a clear U.S.-Western strategy. Iran, as it is now, is no more accepted," he told UPI. "If its nuclear program is attacked before it becomes a nuclear country, it will become a normal country or like North Korea. ... You reap what you sow."
No doubt, the rules of the game in the Middle East have changed, with Iran losing its status in the region and a new Syria emerging.
Kahwaji said that Syria was the gateway for Iran and "this bridge has collapsed," bringing about a major shift in the region.
"We have a whole new Middle East coming into shape where Iran's capability has nearly diminished and Iran itself now is facing a serious threat," he said.
Iran, which imposed itself as an important and influential player in the Arab-Israeli conflict, "has exited the equation," according to Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.
"We have new forces, new political formula governing developments in the region." Khashan told UPI, arguing that the role of Turkey, without which it would have impossible to capture Damascus and overthrow Assad, will be stronger.
He said what happens in Syria will influence other countries, shape events in the region and "whoever controls Syria can control the Middle East."
Syria's new leaders would thus need to succeed in stabilizing the country, running it effectively and moving it toward a new horizon.
"It would then become a success story and a source of inspiration to other Arabs who will try to follow and contribute to a fundamental change in the region itself," Khashan said, dismissing the possibility of establishing an Islamic rule in Syria.
"Syria is an ethnically and religiously fragmented country. It will be stupid to create an Islamic order like in Afghanistan. ... It doesn't work," he said.
However, he expressed fears that the countries in the region would not want the new regime in Syria to succeed and become "a role model for others to emulate ... as they are afraid of change."
The new Syria also could be an inspiration for the Iranian people, who started to realize how weak their government is becoming and how taking actions domestically could transform the regime in Tehran, Khashan said.
"I think eventually Iran will transform itself. ... Now, the U.S. wants Iran to change from within and not the change to come from abroad," he said.
Israel, which considers itself to have emerged "victorious" from its multi-front war, still has many challenges to face.
The Gaza war is not over and its hostages remain captive; the conflict with Hezbollah may not have ended; the Houthis still are launching missiles deep into their territories; Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq are still active; and Iran might become a nuclear country.
Little time is left for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to act against Iran before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who pledged to end the raging wars in the region and promised peace and prosperity, returns to the White House on Jan 20.
