Analysis: New reality convinced Hezbollah, Israel to accept truce agreement

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 27 (UPI) -- A cease-fire agreement that ended the almost-14-month, Hezbollah-Israel bloody conflict, is likely to secure calm and stability along the border as both enemies forcibly accept the new reality on the ground, Lebanese military experts said.

The agreement, announced Tuesday by U.S. President Joe Biden, required months of complicated negotiations to achieve a formula that allows a strict implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, backed by U.S. guarantees and an enforced-monitoring committee to deal with violations.

Resolution 1701, which ended the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, was never respected by either party. On Wednesday, it emerged as the only available option not only to end the raging war, but also maintain lasting calm along the border.

A weakened Hezbollah, the large destruction by Israel of several Lebanese regions and most importantly an Iranian green light were main factors that led to the militant group's acceptance to stop the war. More than 3,823 people have been killed and 15,859 were wounded in Lebanon since October 2023.

Israel, for its part, came under considerable pressure in the battlefield, with Hezbollah still fighting its forces advancing in southern Lebanon and firing rockets and drones into Israel, some reaching Tel Aviv.

But the turning point was the U.S. emerging determination to end the war, with Biden reportedly warning Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against turning down the American proposal to end the devastating conflict or face a U.N. Security Council resolution that could be tougher for Israel.

The arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court against Netanyahu and his former defense minister Yoav Gallant added to the pressures.

The deal, Biden said, was intended to be "a permanent cessation of hostilities," whereby the Lebanese Army and security forces will deploy to take control of the border area within 60 days. Hezbollah will not be allowed to rebuild its infrastructure.

Israel will gradually withdraw its remaining forces during that period, and civilians on both sides of the border will return to their homes and businesses.

Biden promised that the United States, France and others will provide the necessary assistance "to make sure this deal is implemented fully and effectively" and the conflict, the deadliest between Israel and Hezbollah in decades, not "just another cycle of violence."

That would be a real challenge for Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, who did not object to the truce deal when briefed.

On Lebanon's side, Hezbollah accepted to retreat to the north of the Litani River with its heavy weapons and the government committed to implementing Resolution 1701 by deploying the Army that will be the only force in charge of security in the southern border area, backed by the U.N. peacekeeping force.

"I guarantee 100% that Hezbollah will abide by the agreement and will not commit the mistake it made on Oct. 8, 2023 [when it attacked Israel in support of Gaza]," Hisham Jaber, a Lebanese military expert and former army general, told UPI.

Jaber said Hezbollah will not repeat "this mistake that led to all these catastrophes, whether they [the group] recognize that or not." He was referring especially to the Sept. 17 sophisticated pager attacks by Israel and the assassination of Hezbollah long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah 10 days later.

He empathized that there will be no Hezbollah heavy weapons in the area south of the Litani River, as "there is no need for them at all."

As for the group's military presence north of the Litani River, he said "this is an internal issue not related to Israel or Res. 1701." The fully armed Hezbollah is already a source of great tension and division among the Lebanese.

He emphasized that the Lebanese Army, which is in a stronger position now that Hezbollah is weaker, will not be "a policeman executing the demands of Israel." It will, rather, be "fully cooperative with the UNIFIL and the monitoring committee."

The monitoring committee, led by the United States, with support from France, will have the delicate task of monitoring violations. The agreement provides for Israel and Lebanon "to exercise their right to self-defense."

Jaber argued that the "self-defense" clause doesn't give Israel the right to decide alone on attacking Lebanon in case of any breach.

The United States, however, provided Israel with a letter of guarantees, published by the Ynet website, that allows Israel to conduct flights over Lebanon for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance purposes only -- without breaking the sound barrier.

It also recognizes Israel's right to respond to "threats coming from Lebanese territory in accordance with international law." How remains the big question.

According to retired Lebanese Brig. Gen. Hassan Jouni, the cease-fire agreement was achieved as a result of favorable "international, regional and local circumstances."

"These circumstances would definitely lead to its implementation and confirm its viability," Jouni told UPI.

The deal was made possible thanks to a joint decision by Biden's democratic administration and President-elect Trump, and "Netanyahu had to bow to the U.S. will."

Iran's approval, the steadfastness of Hezbollah fighters in the battlefield and the failure of Israel's defense system to stop Hezbollah's rocket firing pushed Tel Aviv to admit that it was unable to secure the return of its displaced citizens to northern Israel and to destroy Hezbollah, according to Jouni.

"Implementing Res. 1701 and the commitment of both parties should be serious this time, with the presence of an empowered monitoring committee," he said.

Such a serious commitment to the U.N. resolution will "limit Hezbollah's military role to the maximum .... Reaching the border [with Israel] is no longer possible."

Dropping its weapons is another issue that undoubtedly would require a deal with Iran, he argued.

Stripping Hezbollah of its military might remains Israel's primary goal. Even though it has dealt heavy blows to the Iran-backed militant group, killing its top commanders and destroying a great bulk of its infrastructures, Israel has failed to dismantle it.

Preventing Hezbollah from rearming and refunding is another major goal for Israel, which has been relentlessly attacking any suspicious arms or money shipments heading to Lebanon from inside Syria.

Would Hezbollah be able to support Iran in case it is attacked, being it is most powerful force in the region?

"Would they open the [southern] front again? I say they would abstain from doing that, against their will," Jaber said.

The chances to restore calm along the Israel-Lebanese border and avoid another war, at least for the near future, are possible today more than ever, but considerable challenges and risks persist.

"I think we are approaching a long-term stability until the region enters the phase of big settlements," Jouni said. "I don't think there is a possibility for another flare-up on this front."