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BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 8 (UPI) -- U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who is making a triumphant return to the White House, has pledged to end the raging Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon, promising peace and prosperity. But the question remains how and at what expense, Lebanese political analysts said.
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The 13-month wars on both fronts, which broke out after Hamas attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and Hezbollah joined the fight across the Lebanon border in support of Gaza, have imposed a new political, security and military reality in the troubled Middle East region.
Israel went on destroying both Iran-backed militant groups to avenge Hamas' daring "Al Aqsa Flood" operation that killed 1,200 people and took 250 as hostages. Gaza was turned into rubble with a death toll of more than 43,300 people, 70% of whom were women and children.
In Lebanon, 3,102 people were killed and 13,819 wounded in Israel's relentless attacks that destroyed large parts of the country's southern and eastern regions, as well as Beirut's southern suburbs.
Hamas and Hezbollah were greatly weakened, but still fighting even though they have lost their leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah, respectively, along with many of their military commanders and fighters.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not willing yet to stop the wars, especially in Gaza, where he was accused of committing genocide and war crimes. Israel, whose image was badly damaged, was most importantly losing world opinion.
Netanyahu, however, hopes that the United States' returning president will give him a free hand to "finish the job" in Gaza and Lebanon.
He targets to break Iran's axis of resistance in the Arab world; destroy Iran's nuclear program and change its regime; resettle in Gaza and annex the West Bank meaning no chance to establish a Palestinian state; normalize ties with Saudi Arabia; and create a new Middle East.
The coming two months-plus, "while [Joe] Biden is a lame duck president and Trump has not taken over, present a golden opportunity" for Netanyahu and his extremist cabinet, according to Lebanon's former ambassador in Washington, Riad Tabbarah.
"How Trump will manage is the question. It will depend on how things are on the ground by then," Tabbarah told UPI.
Trump said during his presidential campaign that he wanted a quick deal in Lebanon and the Gaza campaign by the time he takes office on Jan. 20.
Tabbarah argued that Trump is clear about his goals, but never about the means to achieve them and claimed that "his unpredictability is part of his Art of the Deal policy to keep the other side guessing."
He said he expected "no strategic change" in U.S. policy toward Israel and the Middle East, with the Israel lobby's influence on Congress and hence on the presidency "too powerful to allow such a change."
Until Trump takes over, violence in the Middle East is expected to continue and even increase, with no one to rein in the Israeli prime minister.
"If Netanyahu is going to give the U.S. the present of cessation of hostilities, it would be to Trump and not to Biden," Tabbarah said.
On the table for Lebanon is the implementation of 18-year-old U.N. Resolution 1701 that calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah and for the Army and U.N. peacekeeping troops to be the only force in charge of security in the southern border area.
But Netanyahu wants more, seeking to impose more enforcement mechanisms, even at the expense of Lebanon's sovereignty, to prevent the rearming and funding of the militant group -- conditions rejected by Lebanon.
Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, explained that Hezbollah accepted to implement Resolution 1701, but "it is too late as it is behind Netanyahu, who wants to see what comes from and in Lebanon."
The Israeli prime minister wants to end the hostilities, but what he is offering to Lebanon is surrender.
"By controlling its [Lebanon's] air space and ground, he wants to treat Lebanon the same way he treats the West Bank," Khashan told UPI. "The Lebanese will completely lose their sovereignty, and that's the main problem."
Rearming Hezbollah, which was hit hard by Israel's severe blows, would be "meaningless" if the group doesn't have "a powerful air force and advanced technology like the Israelis .... The technological gap is too wide," Khashan said.
For the Palestinians, Netanyahu's plans are even worse, as he and his extremist cabinet are not willing to give them a state of their own.
"Their aim is Greater Israel that includes Gaza and the West Bank," Tabbarah said. "Since this would create a near equality in numbers of Jews and non-Jews, it is imperative for them to reduce the number of Palestinians through any means, including genocide and forced emigration."
The fate of the nearly 5 million Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza is in limbo amid fears of Israel imposing conditions that make neighboring Jordan their homeland.
According to Khashan, Netanyahu wants, with the support of Trump, to impose the Israeli version of peace on the Arabs, saying "no more peace for land, but peace for peace."
In 2017, Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and two years later recognized Israel's 1981 annexation of the Golan Heights. His policy of normalization, the Abraham Accords, remains the focus of his approach to the Arab-Israeli problem.
Normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia, which Netanyahu desperately wants, requires peace in Palestine and Lebanon, and at least a clear path to Palestinian statehood -- a minimal condition for Saudi Arabia, according to Tabbarah.
"Will Netanyahu give up his dream of greater Israel for his dream for normalization with Saudi Arabia? This will be the biggest issue in the Middle East for Trump to solve," he said.
Regarding Iran, Trump will most likely return to his "maximum pressure" policy for achieving a new nuclear deal with restrictions on Tehran's missile program and a resolution to the activities of its allied militias in the region.
"Trump has to find an appropriate prize to give Iran in return," Tabbarah said.
That would put a brake on Netanyahu's calls for regime change in the Islamic country.
Since the establishment of its Islamic rule in1979, Iran focused on exporting its revolution to the Arab world and creating its own Shiite military arms to penetrate the region.
"It wanted to become the equal of Israel ... wanted Israel to recognize it as a peer," Khashan said, recalling that Iraq's late President Saddam Hussein and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tried the same, but the U.S. destroyed the first while the second failed.
If Netanyahu wants to proceed with changing the region, Khashan argued that "the transformation of the Middle East [cannot be] completed without changing Iran and its leadership."
It certainly depends on Trump, who also would need to find a way to achieve a just settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and spare the region another cycle of violence.
