China marks 3-year anniversary of first COVID-19 cases with estimated 9,000 deaths per day

Jan. 1 (UPI) -- COVID-19 is surging to astronomical levels in Mainland China, an estimated 9,000 deaths a day and more than 250 million cases in a month, three years after the nation reported dozens of pneumonia cases of an unknown cause.

On Dec. 31, 2019, the government in Wuhan reported the infections and days later it was identified as a new virus. Then, on Jan. 11, Chinese state media reported the first known death from the illness, a 61-year-old man who was a regular customer at the market in Wuhan.

By Jan. 17, Wuhan was isolated from the rest of the world. It ultimately, led to a "zero tolerance" policy with quarantines, lockdowns, massive testing and other restrictions, including face coverings in the world's largest nation of more than 1.4 billion people.

Fast forward three years, those restrictions have been dropped and huge crowds rung in the new year, including in Wuhan. The nation is bracing for the Lunar New Year holiday that runs from Jan. 21-27 though it lasts about 40 days as people take off before and after the official break.

Cities worldwide also celebrated without restrictions, including New York City. But unlike China, the virus has largely been controlled, including the use of life-saving vaccines.

Meanwhile, worldwide infections dropped 18% to 3,833,221 for a cumulative 6,697,867 Sunday. Fatalities were down 21% for 10,064 for a total 665,180,885, according to Worldometers.info.

Tjose statistics don't include the true number for Mainland China.

China no longer is reporting asymtomatic cases and has closed a network of PCR testing sites. People who are using rapid antigen tests to detect infections are under no obligation to report positive results.

And only deaths caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure after contracting the virus are classified as COVID deaths.

Accordng to government data, in one week deaths rose by eight to 5,249 in 89th place worldwide. No fatalities were reported Sunday. Before a spike in April, which necessitated a lockdown, it was 4,636, which stayed at that number since early February 2021.

And confirmed cases have hit 435,472 in 96th place. Sunday's infections were 2,983 with 33,139 in one week, a 59% gain.

China's record is 5,659 on April 29, not counting 14,108 on Feb. 8, 2020 early in record reporting.

Before asymptomatic tests were dropped 18 days ago, the was 39,791 21 days ago when there were 3,709 confirmed ones.

In reality, around 63,000 people a week are dying, according to the British-based data firm Airfinity on Thursday, which is twice as the estimate from a week ago.

An American group, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, estimated up to half a million deaths by April and another million by the end of 2023 if China rejects social-distancing mandates.

The group also estimated daily infections were 743,000 per day on average compared to 960,000 the week before.

An estimated 11% of people in China have been infected at least once as of Dec. 12

"By any account, the Chinese government faces extremely hard choices in the coming months balancing economic and schooling outcomes against the real prospect of substantial death, particularly in the over-80 population," the group wrote. "Using vaccines and drugs developed outside of China could save many lives. It is unclear if China will take this course of action at this point."

The World Health Organization wants real data from China.

"WHO again asked for regular sharing of specific and real-time data on the epidemiological situation... and data on vaccinations delivered and vaccination status, especially in vulnerable people and those over 60," WHO said in a statement Thursday.

WHO said it's necessary because of "the importance of monitoring, and the timely publication of data, to help China and the global community to formulate accurate risk assessments and to inform effective responses."

Other nations are working to prevent the spread of the virus.

The United States, England Spain, France, South Korea, India, Italy, Japan and Taiwan have all imposed Covid tests for travelers from China.

The U.S. policy begins Thursday.

Subvariants of the Omicron coronavirus variant, including the newest, XBB.1.5, are circulating worldwide. "We're seeing Omicron do what viruses do, which is it picks up mutations along the way that helps it evade a little bit of immunity that's induced by previous infection or vaccination," said Andrew Pekosz, a microbiologist and immunologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore said in a CNN report. "We haven't seen any major jumps in terms of Omicron evolution in some time," he said. But "it's getting to that stage where it's something that we have to continue to monitor."

China changed its policy after widspread protests.

As part of a new 10-point guideline released by China's NHC, large-scale lockdowns will be curtailed and people with mild or no symptoms will be allowed to isolate at home rather than being forced into government camps.

Frequent COVID-19 tests and health verification apps will also no longer be necessary to enter most public facilities, except for elderly care homes, medical institutions, and primary and secondary schools.

The nation also only is allowing its domestic-produced vaccines.

China's vaccines are 70% effective in preventing severe cases for people aged 60 and above and 95% after a booster shot, according to a study published in the medical journal Lancet Infectious Disease in October. The rates are higher for the other vaccines.

Pfizer-BioNTech's initial Phase 3 clinical data surpassed expectations with 95% efficacy for the prevention of COVID-19. Later data on real-world effectiveness for adults showed that the protection from the mRNA two-dose primary series wanes but booster doses "bring the immune system back to robust levels," according to a Yale report.

Moderna's results were similar.

In China, only 42.3% of those aged 80 and over have received a third dose of vaccine, according to a CNN calculation of new figures released by the NHC on Dec. 14.

China is not reporting hospitalization data to the WHO since it ended restrictions.

Hong Kong, like China, has adopted a "zero tolerance" for coronavirus with strong restrictions eased, including hotel quarantine for arrivals from other nations.

Hong Kong reported 62 deaths and 23,361 cases Sunday one day after 29,207, the most since 2,272 March 16, with the record 79,876 on March 3.

Hong Kong is planning for a Jan. 8 reopening of its border with Mainland China. Chief Secretary Eric Chan says checkpoints, which have been closed for three years, will to resume operations with a "'quota" set in the first phase.

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen said Saturday the self-ruled democratic island is offering unspecified help for Mainland China to deal with COVID-19

On Sunday, Taiwan reported 25,386 cases and 20 deaths.

The seven-day average of 1,438 deaths are among the lowest since 1,232 March 22, 2020, 11 days after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic.

On Sunday, 566 deaths and 239,588 cases were reported.

Some nations do not report data on weekends. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has gone to weekly updates.

The records were 3,851,206 cases on Jan. 21, during the height of the Omicron subvariant, and 16,887 deaths on Jan. 21, 2021, when the Delta subvariant was at its peak. Worldometers sometimes updates totals from as far back as the start of the pandemic.

In the past week, Asia reported 62.4% of the world's confirmed cases, up from 52.6% the week before and 30.9% two weeks ago, and it rose 2% for a cumulative 207,326,003, according to Worldometers.info. The continent has 59% percent of the world's population.

Asia was the only continent to report a rise.

Decreases were Oceania 52% for 13,632,711, North America 47% for 121,531,425, Europe 41% for a world-high 243,042,088, South America 19% for 66,905,669, Africa 15% for 12,742,268.

Two continents reported increases in deaths: Asia 10% for 1,512,687 and South America 8% for 1,342,109.

Decreasing were Oceania 52% for 23,389, North America 50% for 1,579,362, Africa 38% for 258,345, Europe 33% for a world-high 1,981,960.

Only Hong Kong and Mainland China reported increases in both deaths and cases in the past week.

Japan again posted the most weekly cases, 1,095,795 in a 4% decrease and was first in deaths at 2,247, a 16% gain.

South Korea again was second in infections with 458,666, a 3% decrease with deaths 412, a 5% gain in seventh.

The U.S. was third in infections with with 206,334 but a 45% decrease and second in deaths at 1,264, a 48% drop.

The only other cases' increase among nations with at least 25,000: Taiwan 40% in fifth at 165,688, Hong Kong 30% in sixth at 162,086, Australia 44% in 11th at 53,623, China 59% in 13th at 33,139.

Decreases in the past week in descending order were Brazil 26% in fourth at 191,492, Germany 32% in seventh at 157,928, France 49% in eighth at 156,260, Italy 37& in ninth at 83,202, Argentina 0.6% in 10th at 53,623, Russia 16% in 12th at 40,812, Chile 18% in 14th at 31,368, Austria 20% in 15th at 26,851.

Among nations reporting more than 100 deaths with increases in the past week: Hong Kong 41% in eighth with 395, Peru 46% in 10th with 224, Colombia 29% in 16th with 103.

Decreases were Brazil 0% (one less) in third with 1,055, France 7% in fourth with 752, Germany 21% in fifth with 31%, Italy 41% in sixth with 474, Russia 0% (one less) with 381, Taiwan 17% in 11th with 178, Philippines 6% in 12th with 170, Spain 29% in 13th with 168, Chile 1% in 14th with 160, Australia 45% in 15th with 122.

The United States leads with 1,118,376 fatalities and 102,668,952 infections. The nation also holds the world record for daily cases at 907,000 on Jan. 7. Brazil is second in deaths at 693,949, including six Sunday, and fifth in cases at 36,357,101 including 2,846 most recently.

India is second in cases at 44,678,649, including 263 Sunday and third in deaths at 530,705 including one most recently. Zero the last time was March 24, 2020.

India has the daily deaths record at 4,529 on May 18, 2021, with no adjustments from regions.

In the top 10 for deaths, Russia is fourth with 393,762 including 50 Sunday, Mexico is fifth with 331,099 and 55 Saturday, Peru sixth with 218,232 including 1 Saturday, Britain seventh with 198,937, Italy eighth with 184,642, France ninth with 161,962, Germany 10th with 161,465. In one week, Indonesia dropped to 11th with 160,619 including seven Sunday.

In the top 10 for cases, France is third with 39,331,022 including 15,005 Saturday, Germany fourth with 37,369,865, Japan passing South Korea to sixth with 28,266,405 including 86,924 Sunday, South Korea seventh with 29,116,800 including 57,527 Sunday, Italy eighth with 25,143,705, Britain ninth with 24,135,084, Russia 10th with 21,803,547 including 5,038 Sunday.

On Wednesday, Japan reported 216,219 cases, the most since 227,139 Aug. 26, with 107,465 Saturday, the most in the world that day. And deaths Sunday were 247 after a record 429 Thursday.

Japan's seven-day moving case average is 107,465 compared with 26,325 Oct. 12 and under 20,000 in early July with the daily record 255,316 Aug. 18.

Throughout the pandemic Japan has had a low deaths rate though they are 16 times higher than during the same period last year. According to the report by the Mainichi Daily on Friday, there were 11,835 virus-related deaths from Oct. 1 to Dec. 29 compared to 744 deaths during the same period last year.

Japan has 458 deaths per million, which is 139th in the nation, with the world at 859.2 and Peru No. 1 at 6,479. In cases, Japan's rate is 233,304 per million in 81st place with the world 85,314 and Austria the highest among large countries at 629,552 with France 599,471, South Korea 567,248, Portugal 547,707 and Denmark 542,433. Japan's population is 125 million.

South Korea's seven-day cases average is 65,524 but it reached 404,626 on March 19, when the daily record was 621,328 on March 17. The nation reported 62,926 cases Saturday, second most in world.

Though South Korea's cases fell for the fifth straight day Sunday, the number of critically ill patients rose to the highest in about eight months. The number of critically ill patients rose to 636, the first time in about eight months that the number has topped 600.

South Korea's fatalities Sunday were 63.

This CDC didn't produce weekly tracker the past two weeks, including nationwide transmission data.

The CDC reported 402,525 cases in the past week, one week after 486,627, the most since 526,289 Sept. 7. Nine weeks ago it was 262,027, the lowest since 229,301 April 13. The record was 5,630,144 Jan. 19. And the deaths average was 2,530,one week after 2,932, four weeks after 1,764, the lowest since July 7, 2021 of 1,690. The record was 23,387 Jan. 13, 2021.

The predominant Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1 represented 40.5% of the total cases in the week ending Saturday with BQ,1 at 26.9%; BQ.1 at 18.3%; BA.5, which had dominated since the early summer, dropped to 3.7%. Omicron overall totals 100%.

In its weekly report Thursday, the CDC said the U.S. adult one-shot vaccination rate was 91.8% with completed primary service at 78.7% and updated booster doses 17.3%. The full population rates are 80.8% for one shot, 69% for completed primary and 15.1% updated booster 5 and older.

The United States reported Sunday 44,740 were hospitalized, which is 6.75% of capacity, from 38,660 a week ago, which is far below the record 160,113 (20.6%) on Jan. 20, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

Seasonal influenza activity is high and continues to increase across the country.

The CDC estimates so far this season, there have been at least 20 million illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 13,000 deaths from flu. The deaths include at least 61 children, including 14 in the past week.

In its weekly update, the CDC said "Seasonal influenza activity remains high but continues to decline in most areas."

"We anticipate that flu at the very least is going to kick up after all this traveling and all of these holiday get-togethers," Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious diseases expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Tennessee, told NBC News.