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Dec. 25 (UPI) -- Mainland China is experiencing its first major COVID-19 surge since the pandemic originated there three years ago with an estimated 250 million people infected with the virus in the first 20 days of the month as the "zero tolerance" has ended. Meanwhile, worldwide infections dropped 9% to 3,658,065 for a cumulative 661,756,874 Sunday. Fatalities were down 8% for 11,460 for a total 6,686,012, according to Worldometers.info.
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China's estimate, which represents 18% of the world's largest population of more than 1.4 billion, comes from an internal meeting of China's National Health Commission on Wednesday as reported by Bloomberg News and the Financial Times on Friday.
China no longer is reporting asymtomatic cases and has closed a network of PCR testing sites. People who are using rapid antigen tests to detect infections are under no obligation to report positive results.
And only deaths caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure after contracting the virus are classified as COVID deaths, Wang Guiqiang, a top infectious disease doctor, told a news conference Tuesday.
In one week deaths rose by six to 5,241 in 97th place worldwide after not changing for two weeks. No fatalities were reported Saturday. Before a spike in April, which necessitated a lockdown, it was 4,636, which stayed at that number since early February 2021.
And confirmed cases have hit 400,178 in 134th place. Sunday's infections were 2,983 with 20,834 in one week, a 33% gain.
China's record is 5,659 on April 29, not counting 14,108 on Feb. 8, 2020 early in record reporting.
Before asymptomatic tests were dropped 11 days ago, the was 39,791 21 days ago when there were 3,709 confirmed ones.
As part of a new 10-point guideline released by China's NHC, large-scale lockdowns will be curtailed and people with mild or no symptoms will be allowed to isolate at home rather than being forced into government camps.
Frequent COVID-19 tests and health verification apps will also no longer be necessary to enter most public facilities, except for elderly care homes, medical institutions, and primary and secondary schools.
According to the estimate, on Tuesday alone 37 million people were newly infected with coronavirus across China. The confirmed number that day was 3,049.
"The numbers look plausible, but I have no other sources of data to compare [them] with. If the estimated infection numbers mentioned here are accurate, it means the nationwide peak will occur within the next week," Ben Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong told CNN in an emailed statement, when asked about the purported NHC estimates.
During a CNN visit to a major crematorium in Beijing on Tuesday, the parking lot was completely packed, with a long line of cars snaking around the cremation area waiting to get in.
And space is running out at hospital. One man in Bejing told CNN he had to go the night before to register his elderly family member for a bed.
The nation is bracing for the Lunar New Year holiday that runs from Jan. 21 to Jan. 27 though it lasts about 40 days as people take off before and after the official break.
The nation is dealing with shortages of basic cold remediesup to more powerful antivirals for patients in hospitals.
"The doctor told me there was no fever medicine," Diane Ye, a 28-year-old patient in Beijing told The New York Times. She lined up outside a hospital for hours with a fever and was sent home with a bottle of sore throat medicine."
People lamented the demise of the restrictions.
"Opening up is great, but it happened too fast and without preparation. People don't have these common medicines stocked up at home," said a pharmacist working at a public hospital in Beijing who only provided his last name, Zhang.
Unlike other places around the world, China hasn't controlled the infection with vaccines, which first became available more than two years ago. China is only administering domestically-produced one.
They are 70% effective in preventing severe cases for people aged 60 and above and 95% after a booster shot, according to a study published in the medical journal Lancet Infectious Disease in October.
And only 42.3% of those aged 80 and over in China have received a third dose of vaccine, according to a CNN calculation of new figures released by the NHC on Dec. 14.
China's vaccination rate is 93% with at least once dose.
Hong Kong, like China, has adopted a "zero tolerance" for coronavirus with strong restrictions eased, including hotel quarantine for arrivals from other nations.
Hong Kong reported 50 deaths and 21,255 cases Sunday, the most since 21,650 March 17, with the record 79,876 on March 3.
The border between Hong Kong and mainland China is set to "fully reopen" by mid-January. On Saturday, Hong Kong Chief executive John Lee said authorities plan to "gradually, orderly, and fully" re-open all entry points between the two sides, and coordinate with the government of nearby Shenzhen to manage the flow of people.
The seven-day average of 1,637 deaths are among the lowest since 1,232 March 22, 2020, 11 days after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic.
On Sunday, 616 deaths and 289,639 cases were reported.
Some nations do not report data on weekends. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has gone to weekly updates.
The records were 3,851,210 cases on Jan. 21, during the height of the Omicron subvariant, and 16,887deaths on Jan. 21, 2021, when the Delta subvariant was at its peak. Worldometers sometimes updates totals from as far back as the start of the pandemic.
In the past week, Asia reported 52.6% of the world's confirmed cases and it rose 7% for a cumulative 205,418,088, according to Worldometers.info. Last week it was 30.9%. The continent has 59% percent of the world's population.
Asia was the only continent to report a rise.
Decreases were Africa 41% for 12,736,818, Oceania 32% for 13,542,449, North America 28% for 121,048,105, Europe 23% for a world-high 242,454,596, South America 6% for 66,556,097.
Two continents reported increases in deaths: Asia 15% for 1,508,979 and South America 11% for 1,340,498.
Decreasing were North America 26% for 1,576,623, Africa 20% for 258,322, Europe 16% for a world-high 1,978,379 and Oceania 15% for 23,196.
Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Argentina, Mexico, Chile reported increases in both deaths and cases in the past week.
Japan again posted the most weekly cases, 1,136,504 in a 10% increase and was first in deaths at 1,932, a 23% gain, displacing the United States for most in a week.
South Korea was second in infections with 471,176, a 3% increase with deaths 391, a 21% drop in eighth.
France's 305,329 infections were third in the world, with an 23% decline, and deaths were 748, a 2% rise in fifth.
The only other cases' increase among nations with at least 25,000: Germany 4% in sixth at 231,055, Hong Kong 17% in seventh at 124,660, Taiwan 11% in eighth at 118,742, Argentina 130% in 11th at 62,261, Mexico 0.2% in 14th at 32,189, Chile 10% in 17th at 26,526.
Decreases in the past week in descending order were United States 28% with 300,565 in fourth, Brazil 13% with 260,338 in fifth, Australia 18% with 94,193 in ninth, Italy 46% with 93,530 in 10th, Russia 4% with 48,845 in 12th, Austria 9% with 33,112 in 13th, Peru 48% in 15th at 30,050, Britain 30% with 27,907 in 16th.
Among nations reporting more than 100 deaths with increases in the past week: Brazil 14% in third with 1,056, Hong Kong 43% in 10th with 281, Mexico 70% in 12th with 233, Philippines 2% in 15th with 181,Chile 14% in 16th with 162, Thailand 6% in 19th with 113.
Decreases were United States 26% in second with 1,903, Germany 4% in fourth with 918, Italy 19% in sixth with 751, Britain 19% in seventh with 475, Russia 2% in ninth with 382, Australia 2% with 233 in 11th, Taiwan 2% in 13th with 215, Spain 12% in 14th with 207, Peru 30% in 17th with 153, Indonesia 25% in 18th with 140.
The United States leads with 1,116,084 fatalities and 102,236,095 infections. The nation also holds the world record for daily cases at 907,006 on Jan. 7. Brazil is second in deaths at 692,934, including 48 Sunda, and fifth in cases at 36,1191,154 including 8,391 most recently.
India is second in cases at 44,677,106, including 226 Sunday with 131 Tuesday after 112 Dec. 12, the lowest since 30 March 26, 2020, and third in deaths at 530,693 including one most recently. Zero the last time was March 24, 2020.
India has the daily deaths record at 4,529 on May 18, 2021, with no adjustments from regions.
In the top 10 for deaths, Russia is fourth with 393,383 including 52 Sunday, Mexico is fifth with 331,013 and 55 Saturday, Peru sixth with 218,008 including 1 Saturday, Britain seventh with 198,937, Italy eighth with 183,936, Indonesia ninth with 160,537 including 13 Sunday and France 10th with 161,152.
In the top 10 for cases, France is third with 39,159,757 including 40,744 Saturday, Germany fourth with 37,211,937, South Korea sixth with 28,659,055 including second-world high 59,448 Sunday, Japan seventh with 28,266,405 including a world-high 149,665 Sunday, Italy eighth with 25,021,606, Britain ninth with 24,135,084, Russia 10th with 21,764,292 including 6,595. Sunday.
On Wednesday, Japan reported 206,942 cases, the most since 227,139 Aug. 26, with 158,383 Saturday, the most in the world that day. And deaths Sunday were 306 after a record 371 Friday, surpassing the record 347 Sept. 3.
Japan's seven-day moving case average is 177,622 compared with 26,325 Oct. 12 and under 20,000 in early July with the daily record 255,316 Aug. 18.
Throughout the pandemic Japan has had a low deaths rate.
Japan has 4441 deaths per million, which is 140th in the nation, with the world at 857.7 and Peru No. 1 at 6,472. In cases, Japan's rate is 225,078 per million in 83rd place with the world 84,891 and Austria the highest among large countries at 626,258 with France 597,088, South Korea 558,331, Portugal 547,707 and Denmark 541,941. Japan's population is 125 million.
Medical professionals are bracing for a 1-2 punch of coronavirus and influenza during winter.
During a panel meeting last week to discuss measures against the spread of them, they called on those with mild coronavirus symptoms to recover at home ahead of the New Year's period.
South Korea's seven-day cases average is 67,311 but it reached 404,626 on March 19, when the daily record was 621,328 on March 17. The nation reported 66,7049 cases Saturday, second most in world.
South Korea's fatalities Sunday were 46.
Cases continue to spike in France with 71,212 Tuesday and 40,744 Saturday, the third-most in the world that day.
In the United States through Dec. 15, the CDC has classified 9.2% of counties, districts and territories with a "high" category transmission level, compared with 34.9% "medium" and 55.6% "low." In "high" locations, masks are urged indoors mainly in scattered places in the the Midwest, Plains, Rockies.
The CDC reported 487,367 cases in the past week, the most since 526,289 Sept. 7, and one week after 455,028. Eight weeks ago it was 262,015, the lowest since 229,016 April 13. The record was 5,630,296 Jan. 19. And the deaths average was 2,952, one week after 2,699, three weeks after 1,794, the lowest since 1,679 July 7. The record was 23,387 Jan. 13, 2021.
The predominant Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1 represented 35.7% of the total cases in the week ending Saturday with BQ,1 at 27.4%, XBB at 18.3% and BA.5, which dominated since the early summer, dropped to 6.9%. Omicron overall totals 100%.
XBB rose past BA.5 in the past week.
In its weekly report Thursday, the CDC said the U.S. adult one-shot vaccination rate was 91.7% with completed primary service at 78.7% and updated booster doses 16.8%. The full population rates are 80.8% for one shot, 69% for completed primary and 14.6% updated booster 5 and older.
The United States reported Sunday 38,660 were hospitalized, which is 5.64% of capacity, from 40,101 a week ago, which is far below the record 160,113 (20.6%) on Jan. 20, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. Since the start of the pandemic, total new admissions were 5,641,541 with a 2.3% rise in the seven-day average.
Seasonal influenza activity is high and continues to increase across the country.
The CDC estimates so far this season, there have been at least 18 million illnesses, 190,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from flu. The deaths include at least 47 children, including 17 in the past week.
In its weekly update, theCDC said "seasonal influenza activity remains high but is declining in most areas."
The United States remains a public health emergency due because of COVID-19 infections.
In October, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra extended the PHE through Jan. 11, 2023.
Only about 2 in 5 said the declaration is no longer necessary, according to a new Morning Consult survey. Nearly half of adults overall said the emergency declaration should be extended beyond January.
