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Sept. 15 (UPI) -- Tropical storm conditions are now forecast to hit the Leeward Islands by Friday night, possibly reaching the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday and Puerto Rico by Saturday night, the National Hurricane Center confirmed. The warnings stem from Tropical Storm Fiona, which continues to gather strength, as of the latest update issued at 11 p.m. AST on Thursday.
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A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Fiona will bring heavy rain to the Leeward Islands by Friday afternoon, hitting the British and U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday and Puerto Rico on Saturday night and into Sunday morning.
"This rainfall may produce considerable flood impacts, including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain," the NHC said in its update.
The tropical storm could move close to Hispaniola in the Greater Antilles by early next week.
The storm was 335 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands on Thursday night. It had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving west at 15 mph.
Tropical storm watches have been upgraded to warnings in parts of the Leeward Islands on Thursday.
Fiona became the sixth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday night, about 12 hours after it was labeled as a tropical depression.
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has also issued warnings for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla, the NHC said.
The French government declared a tropical storm watch for the islands of Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin. The Netherlands government issued a warning for the islands of Saba and St. Eustatius, while the government of St. Maarten declared a warning as well.
"Fiona has slowly losing latitude over the past 24 hours or so, and the initial motion is estimated to be 265/13 kt," the NHC said. "A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Fiona should steer the system generally westward for the next few days, taking the storm across the northern Leeward Islands Friday night and near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday through early Sunday."
The fate of the tropical storm after Friday will be heavily dictated by the environment that the tropical feature will be moving into over the central Caribbean islands.
AccuWeather forecasters expect the tropical feature to take a turn more to the north once it reaches the Bahamas due to strong wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico and nearby steering winds. As such, initial indications are that the feature could miss the United States. However, since any direct interaction from Fiona in the U.S. is more than a week away, it is possible that weather patterns may shift. For this reason, interests along the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda should continue to monitor Fiona's progress.
Even without an organized storm forecast to impact the eastern U.S. in the coming week, tropical moisture is still expected to play a role in weather conditions taking shape across parts of the country this week.
"A front will stall along the Gulf Coast, helping to produce thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula. A flow of tropical moisture from the Caribbean and Gulf toward this front will further enhance thunderstorms with heavy rain," said AccuWeather meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Drenching thunderstorms for the second half of the week could quickly bring as much as 1-2 inches of rain in a short amount of time. While the soil across much of Florida is equipped to handle heavier-than-normal downpours, in more developed or paved locations, such as cities, water could start ponding, especially in low-lying areas.
AccuWeather forecasters say that motorists should be particularly alert for heavy downpours that could bring reduced visibility and associated travel delays.
Depending on the tropical system's track and should any of the tropical moisture from the rainstorm survive the strong winds of the Caribbean, there could be another round of tropical downpours in parts of Florida next week.
The peak of hurricane season came and went over the weekend with little actual cyclonic activity over the Atlantic basin, which has been notably dormant this year after two years of nearly constant activity, particularly in the middle parts of the seasons.
On Sept. 10, the aforementioned statistical peak of the Atlantic season, the only hurricane to speak of was Earl, which, after reaching Category 2 force earlier in the week, was speeding over the North Atlantic and posed virtually no direct threat to land. Earl was just the fifth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season and, at one point about 800 miles away from Cape Hatteras, was the closest any hurricane this season came to the United States mainland.
Nearly two-and-a-half months through the 2022 hurricane season, not a single hurricane has come within striking distance of the East Coast or Gulf Coast.
Based on the below-average number of storms so far this season, long-range forecasts and the advancing stage of the current season, AccuWeather forecasters revised their overall forecast for named storms to around 12 on Tuesday. This means forecasters expect seven additional storms to form before the end of the season. In addition, they revised the number of expected hurricanes to four to six, which means of those seven storms, as many as two to four could become hurricanes this year.
