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| This satellite loop, taken on Monday evening, local time shows Tropical Storm Rai across the Philippine Sea. Rai will eventually impact the Philippines later this week. Image courtesy of RAMMB/CIRA |
Tropical Storm Rai formed on Monday evening, local time, while churning across the warm waters of the southern Philippine Sea. AccuWeather meteorologists expect the system to reach typhoon strength before it sweeps across the Philippines later this week where it could unleash damage.
Due to different naming conventions, Rai will be known as Odette in the Philippines. The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration will give the storm the name Odette once it enters its area of concern.
"Rai will continue to strengthen early this week as it turns toward the west-northwest," AccuWeather lead international forecaster and senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
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The waters over which Rai is expected to travel are sufficiently warm for further strengthening. A lack of strong wind shear in its path will also support the strengthening and maintenance of any tropical system.
While Rai is not likely to become as intense as Nyatoh, the storm is expected to strengthen into a typhoon and can pose a serious threat to lives and property across the Philippines during the second half of the week, when it could bring heavy rain, flooding and damaging winds to the central and southern Philippines, according to Nicholls.
Rai is expected to hit a peak intensity equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained winds 96-110 mph).
Along the storm's projected path through the Philippines, damaging winds gusts can reach 80-100 mph, warned Nicholls. Cities including Cebu and Iloilo may experience the full force of the storm from Thursday into Friday. Rai is anticipated to make its landfall in the southeastern Philippines.
Strong winds could topple trees onto roadways or power lines, and power outages may result. Weaker structures can also undergo damage to roofs and exterior walls.
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Heavy rain can also lead to flooding across the southern and central Philippines. Rain totals can reach 4-8 inches in many areas. The heaviest rain is expected along a swath extending about 100 miles to the north and south of Rai's track.
This rain can wash out some roads and cause mudslides in mountainous terrain. Forecasters also warn that rivers can quickly rise and flood low-lying roads.
In addition to flooding from rainfall, a storm surge that could reach several feet in height is expected to cause coastal inundation near Rai's track as the strong winds from the storm push water onto the coast.
While Rai is expected to lose wind intensity as it curves to the north across the South China Sea, meteorologists say residents of eastern Vietnam and southern China should monitor the storm and be ready to make preparations should the Rai approach land.
The last named storm to impact the Philippines this season was Severe Tropical Storm Kompasu, known as Maring in the Philippines, during the first half of October. This storm made landfall near Fuga Island in the northern Philippines on Oct. 11, before venturing across the South China Sea and making a second landfall along the east coast of Hainan. Unlike the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, the West Pacific does not have seasonal bounds for its tropical season. On average, most of the West Pacific's tropical activity tends to occur between May and October.
