People walk past a COVID-19 vaccination sign outside a hospital in central London on September 9. File Photo by Andy Rain/EPA-EFE
Dec. 11 (UPI) -- The Omicron variant could produce a new wave of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations across Britain exceeding last winter's peak levels without new restrictions, a study issued Saturday forecast.
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said the results suggest the Omicron variant "will lead to a substantial increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission" in Britain, which without further control measures has the potential to produce "substantially higher case rates than those recorded during the Alpha ... winter wave in 2020-2021."
This is due, they said, "to Omicron's apparent high transmissibility and ability to infect individuals with existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from prior infection or from vaccination."
The researchers used four scenarios regarding the potential transmissibility, immune escape and vaccine effectiveness against Omicron -- and in each case foresaw a surge in infections beginning later this month and eventually exceeding peak levels recorded during the January 2021 wave.
The calculations are based on an assumption that no further control measures are introduced beyond the current mandatory mask-wearing in shops and on public transportation and the government's new "Plan B" mitigation measures, which are to take effect Sunday.
The study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, found that under the most optimistic scenario in which Omicron exhibits low immune escape and vaccine boosters prove effective, it would result in 175,000 hospitalizations and 24,700 deaths between Dec. 1 and April 30.
A worst-case scenario of low booster effectiveness yielded projections of 492,000 hospitalizations and 74,800 deaths across Britain during the same period.
The most optimistic scenario is projected to lead to daily hospital admissions around 60% as high as the peak of January 2021, while the most pessimistic scenario yielded a peak about twice as high at 7,190 daily admissions.
The study was released as British health authorities tallied more than 54,000 new cases on Saturday, including 633 of the Omicron variant.
