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Canadian elections could shake up balance of power as small parties gain ground

By Nicholas Sakelaris
Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau addresses his supporters at a campaign rally in Montreal on Thursday. Photo by Valerie Blum/EPA-EFE
1 of 3 | Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau addresses his supporters at a campaign rally in Montreal on Thursday. Photo by Valerie Blum/EPA-EFE

Oct. 18 (UPI) -- Canada's government could see a power shift on election day Monday as several parties look to sweep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party out.

If one party wins 170 seats or more, they will have a majority and the party leader will become prime minister, just as Trudeau did four years ago. If no party wins a majority, there will be a minority government where the party that has the most seats forms the government but it needs support of other parties to get business done.

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Polls show the Liberal Party is neck and neck with the Conservative Party, but neither is positioned to win a majority because smaller parties are gaining ground.

Andrew Scheer leads the Conservative Party and would be in line for prime minister if that party wins.

There's even a chance that one of Canada's smaller parties could win a majority. Trudeau has been on the defensive since news broke that he wore brown face make-up at least three times several decades ago.

The left-leaning New Democrats Party led by Jagmeet Singh could partner with a Liberal minority. The party is polling at 19 percent.

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The Green Party led by Elizabeth May is polling at 9 percent. May hasn't ruled out forming a government with either Liberals or Conservatives. The Bloc Quebecois could make gains in 2019. The separatist French-speaking party is based in Quebec and polled at 6 percent. It has expressed no interest in forming a coalition.

The brownface scandal showed Trudeau to be "privileged in the worst sense," Wilfrid Laurier University political science professor Barry Kay told CNBC. It's a case of "stupidity, bad judgment and a lack of character."

"The most revealing thing to me was not so much that it happened, it is that he could not remember how many times it happened," Kay said.

Trudeau has repeatedly apologized for the racist images and described his behavior as "unacceptable."

It may not be a deal breaker for Trudeau's Liberal supporters but "it damages the image of their leader for sure," McGill University public opinion expert Jean-Francois Daoust told CNBC.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama, the first African-American president, endorsed Trudeau on Wednesday.

"The world needs his progressive leadership now, and I hope our neighbors to the north support him for another term," Obama said.

A record number of women are running -- 651 across all the parties, up 9 percent from 2015.

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Healthcare remains the biggest concern for voters with 35 percent listing it as the key issue for this election. Climate change has jumped to the second-biggest concern, with 29 percent listing it as the biggest issue of the campaign followed by the cost of living, taxes and the economy. That's up 4 percent since campaigning began six weeks ago.

Trudeau has worked to shift the focus of the debate to the environment and climate change in the weeks after the brownface scandal.

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