Jan. 22 (UPI) -- After President Joe Biden took office on Wednesday without any violent incidents, many in the United States and worldwide breathed a sigh of relief.
The respite may be brief. The ingredients that led an incensed pro-Donald Trump mob to break into the Capitol and plant pipe bombs at other federal buildings on Jan. 6 remain.
Several U.S. security experts say they consider domestic extremism a greater threat to the country than international terror. According to my research on political violence, the United States has all the elements that, combined, can produce a low-intensity terrorist conflict: extreme polarization and armed factions willing to break the law, in a wealthy democracy with a strong government.
Terror can thrive
Chronic domestic terror is not the same as civil war.
In the modern era, civil wars usually take place in poor countries where the government is too weak and unstable to maintain control over a sprawling, often mountainous territory. Rebels take over swaths of the country and seek to replace the authorities in those areas. This is happening in Afghanistan, India and Nigeria, to name a few places.
In the United States, one of the world's more powerful nations, armed factions have a hard time permanently seizing land. Several dramatic standoffs between fringe extremists and American authorities -- including the 1993 Waco siege and the Bundy family's 41-day occupation of an Oregon wildlife refuge in 2016 -- ended poorly for the extremists.
A huge asymmetry of power between the state and armed factions prevents militants from openly battling to usurp its authority, as rebel groups like the Taliban do and the American Confederates did. It forces armed groups to act underground, hiding among the general population. Because democratic states cannot, at least on paper, openly violate human rights by systematically persecuting militants or torturing prisoners, underground armed rebels can thrive in democracies.
But operating in secret imposes heavy logistical constraints, my research shows.
It limits the number of operations they can sustain, meaning thinner ranks than full-fledged insurgencies and fewer overall fatalities than in civil wars. And although all rebels may dream of Che Guevara-style guerrilla adventures -- heroically liberating "the people" from tyranny -- in practice, militants working underground cannot avoid resorting to quintessential terrorist tactics such as bombs, shootings, bank robberies and kidnappings.
Take Italy's Red Brigades, for example. In the 1970s, this far-left organization aimed at overthrowing the capitalist system, but the Italian state was too strong. So the group resorted to terrorism. For two decades, the Red Brigades carried out a low-intensity campaign that killed perhaps 500 people, mainly with bombings and assassinations. They used violence as a strategy to raise consciousness about communism and provoke an insurrection.
In reaction to this communist violence, far-right groups like Nuclei Armati Rivoluzionari responded with indiscriminate attacks, including a no-warning 1980 train bombing in Bologna that killed 85 civilians. They sought to create a level of disruption so high that it would justify military intervention against the "enemies of the state" -- a fascist coup d'etat.
Both sides lost. There was no insurrection, no intervention. Italian democracy prevailed.
Lone wolf terror
The United States, too, has experience with coordinated domestic terror.
Throughout the early 20th century, the Ku Klux Klan waged vicious campaigns against Black Americans in the South. As the tide of the civil rights movement ebbed in the late 1960s, radical Marxists like the Weather Underground and the Black Liberation Army emerged, using violence to oppose American military intervention in Vietnam and push for racial equality.
Between 1969 and 1981, these two groups -- one predominately White, the other Black -- conducted some 200 attacks, from bank robberies to prison breaks. Fifteen people were killed, most of them security officers.
The FBI engaged in heavy-handed repression, particularly against Black militants. And Americans had scant interest in far left-wing goals like helping the oppressed peoples of the world. Both groups dwindled without much fanfare.
U.S. history has also featured a smattering of fringe, lone wolf terrorists, from the Unabomber on the left to the Atlanta Olympics bomber Eric Rudolph on the right. This trend has recently accelerated, with a deadly new massacre each year. Individual White supremacists, in particular, have attacked immigrants and people of color, in Charleston, S.C., El Paso, Texas and beyond.
According to the Anti-Defamation League, which tracks hate crimes, 2019 was one of the deadliest years for "domestic extremist-related killings" since 1970, with 42 victims in 17 separate incidents.
Trump's militias
Attacks characterized by lone wolf perpetrators have the advantage of limiting legal scrutiny on the extremist milieu. But with coordination, armed campaigns can scale up to do much more damage.
To overcome the lone wolf stage, disparate militant groups must organize around a common theme that gives coherence to their violence. Trump's electoral defeat gave his armed followers a big one: the myth of a stolen election.
The Trump presidency emboldened a cabal of armed groups with a far-right agenda. Seeing their leader out of power will only grow this feeling of frustration. So will new repression of the far right, in the form of arrests, surveillance and social media clampdowns.
With Democrats controlling Washington and elections perceived as rigged, American far-right groups may believe further violence is the only way to counter what they see as federal overreach.
If they pursue terrorism, history shows their chances of succeeding are negligible. But this won't stop them from trying.
Luis De la Calle is a fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University and an associate professor in political science at the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Supporters of President Donald Trump riot against the Electoral College vote count on Wednesday in protest of Trump's loss to President-elect Joe Biden, prompting a lockdown of the Capitol Building. Photo by Leigh Vogel/UPI | License Photo
The rioters breach the security perimeter and penetrate the U.S. Capitol. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
There were 15 arrests following the breach. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Pro-Trump rioters destroy network video gear as hundreds of others breach the security perimeter and penetrate the U.S. Capitol. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Capitol police stand guard as Pro-Trump rioters breach the security perimeter and penetrate the U.S. Capitol. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
During the riots, one woman was fatally shot by Capitol Police and three others died due to medical emergencies. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Police also recovered two pipe bombs, one at the Democratic National Committee headquarters and one from the Republican National committee headquarters. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
A cooler on Capitol grounds was recovered that contained molotov cocktails. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Congress proceedings resumed around 8 p.m., following the breach and lockdown. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
A man holds a noose as Pro-Trump supporters riot at the U.S. Capitol. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
A man holds a Confederate flag as Pro-Trump rioters breach the security perimeter and penetrate the U.S. Capitol. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Several injuries were reported during the melee. One woman died after being shot. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Rioters clambered up onto balconies and other parts of the Capitol. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Pro-Trump rioters clash with law enforcement officers at the U.S. Capitol. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
The protests disrupted the joint session of Congress to certify the election results and put the Capitol on lockdown. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Proud Boys and other right-wing groups were among those who participated in the rallies that grew into a storming of the Capitol. Photo by Leigh Vogel/UPI | License Photo
The National Guard and law enforcement agencies were brought in to secure the Capitol. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
A curfew was instituted for the city from 6 p.m. Wednesday to 6 a.m. Thursday. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
U.S. Capitol police officers take positions as protestors enter the Capitol building. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Lawmakers were told to use gas masks after tear gas was deployed in the Capitol Rotunda. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
The Capitol riot followed a speech by Trump in which he falsely claimed the election was stolen from him. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
The protesters broke through a police line to get inside the Capitol. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Protesters enter the Capitol building during the joint session of Congress. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Law enforcement officers point their weapons as protesters attempt to break into the House Chamber. Photo by Pat Benic/UPI | License Photo
Rioters break the glass of the main door of the House Chamber that is reinforced with a large piece of furniture. Photo by Pat Benic/UPI | License Photo
A large piece of furniture is carried to reinforce the main door of the House Chamber as congress members (above) carry their gas masks while being evacuated. Photo by Pat Benic/UPI | License Photo
House congress members carry their gas masks as they are evacuated. Photo by Pat Benic/UPI | License Photo
A U.S. Capitol police officer shoots pepper spray at a protester attempting to enter the Capitol building during a joint session of Congress to certify the election results. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Trump supporters climb on scaffolding as they protest the election results in front of the U.S. Capitol. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Pro-Trump protesters climb on scaffolding. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Men step apart from the crowd to kneel. Photo by Leigh Vogel/UPI | License Photo
Trump supporters breach the security perimeter of the U.S. Capitol to protest against the Electoral College vote count that would certify President-elect Joe Biden as the winner. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
A protester waves a flag outside the Capitol. Photo by Leigh Vogel/UPI | License Photo
Thousands of Trump supporters demonstrate in front of the U.S. Capitol on Pennsylvania Avenue. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Trump speaks to the crowd. Pool Photo by Shawn Thew/UPI | License Photo
Trump said he will never concede his loss to Biden because "you don't concede when there's theft involved." Pool Photo by Shawn Thew/UPI | License Photo
The protests spanned the area around the National Mall. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
The U.S. Park Police said permits for the rally had been approved and amended by organizers to increase the capacity from 5,000 to 30,000 people. Pool Photo by Shawn Thew/UPI | License Photo
Trump also condemned Republicans who have not backed his attempts to overturn the election results. Pool Photo by Shawn Thew/UPI | License Photo
Trump supporters march toward the U.S. Capitol to protest the Electoral College vote count. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Under federal law, January 6 is the date Electoral College votes determining the next president are counted in a joint session of Congress. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
A demonstrator wears an American flag around his head as he joins hundreds gathering and praying in protest. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
A Trump supporter wears a Trump mask. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
A Trump supporter prays in protest against the Electoral College vote count. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
U.S. Capitol Police exit the building with extra gear ahead of the gatherings to protest against the Electoral College vote count. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Trump supporters gather and march toward the U.S. Capitol. Photo by Pat Benic/UPI | License Photo
Thousands of the president's supporters had packed the National Mall by mid-morning Wednesday, gathering between the Washington Monument and the Ellipse. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
At least a dozen House Republicans and some senators have said they plan to object to the vote count. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
A simple majority is required to uphold the objection in each chamber, but both the House and the Senate must agree to the objection for it to succeed. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Vice President Mike Pence has said he will not interfere with the certification of President-elect Joe Biden's win. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Demonstrators gather and pray holding a cross at a protest against the Electoral College vote to certify President-elect Joe Biden's victory in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday. Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Trump supporters rally near the Capitol ahead of Congress's upcoming Electoral College election vote certification on Tuesday. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Trump, his supporters and some Republicans in Congress are citing baseless claims of widespread fraud in an effort to challenge Biden's victory. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Various groups of Trump supporters announced more rallies this week in support of Trump's baseless claims of election fraud. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Conspiracy theorist and radio host Alex Jones, greets supporters of Trump at the rally. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
D.C. police issued warnings to not bring firearms to the city while they concentrate on protecting houses of worship that express support for Black Lives Matter. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Harry's Bar and the Hotel Harrington, a popular location for the pro-Trump group the Proud Boys, is closed in anticipation of the rallies. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Trump tweeted support of the protesters, saying the presidential election had been "stolen" from him. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Supporters in matching hats rally ahead of Congress' upcoming Electoral College election vote certification. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
There has been no evidence of widespread fraud, despite Trump's claims. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo
Trump supporters rally at the U.S. Supreme Court. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo