Oct. 25 (UPI) -- America's foreign policy objectives involving Iran, Turkey and Russia all pivot around what happens when U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton's visits the Southern Caucasus.
Bolton's tactical swing through Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan is critical for the Trump administration's complex handling of U.S.-Turkish relations, as well mitigating Tehran's malign activity throughout the world, as designated by the U.S. State Department's Iran Working Group.
Armenia, a landlocked country bordering Iran and Turkey, is Moscow's closest ally in the Caucasus. It is a geopolitical pivot at the heart of the matter.
Armenia is playing a negative role in Syria by sending aid and support to Aleppo with Moscow's blessing, and continuing an unhealthy relationship with Iran by declaring itself as a portal for Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union ties with the Islamic Republic to bypass American sanctions. Thus, Yerevan continues its truly anti-American orientation.
Bolton's trip seeks to reverse this tide. Before Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took over last May in something resembling a "color" revolution, Armenia was trying to sign an Association Agreement with the EU. In 2013, under the Russian pressure, it crumbled. In 2017, it signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with Brussels, but it is of a limited value.
Today, Amb John Bolton, Asst to the U.S. President for National Security Affairs, congratulated Acting PM @NikolPashinyan on his success in leading a peaceful democratic transition in Armenia and discussed a range of important bilateral & regional issues. pic.twitter.com/T5HgsLVps9
— US Embassy, Armenia (@usembarmenia) October 25, 2018
Advising Armenia to adhere to a Euro-Atlantic course based on the rule of law is an important to step to bring Armenia closer to the West, to being a partner as opposed to a Kremlin outpost. With Bolton's visit, the United States has an opportunity to nurture Armenia toward democracy, transparency and reform that benefits the future of the South Caucasus.
It is telling, however, where Pashinyan is headed with his populist surge. On Oct. 16, Pashinyan announced on national television his resignation to force early elections in December, since there is a need "to return the entire power to the people." He does not relinquish power, however, remaining an "acting" PM.
Bolton's visit is also an opportunity to send a sharp message to Yerevan that former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan's arrest and trial earlier this year was wrong and illegal. Kocharyan was arrested in summer for allegedly usurping state power during the 2008 riots. The post-elections disturbances then left two police officers dead and eight civilian protesters killed by Armenian security forces. Both Armenian courts and the European Union refused to prosecute.
Pashinyan's penchant to victimize, bully and cajole former Armenian leaders must be stopped. Kocharyan was arrested for political revenge reasons and to eliminate a political rival -- after all, Pashinyan was in jail when he was president, but there should be no place for personal vendettas if a country is to move forward.
A new Armenian election, slated for December, can bring about a new prime minister. The mutual trust needed in the body politic to reverse the current domestic acrimony. If there is no internal healing, Western perception of Armenia and Pashinyan would deteriorate further. The timing couldn't be worse, as the South Caucasus is in the middle of the fierce Russian-Turkish-Iranian competition affecting major energy interests and massive East-West and North-South transit.
Armenia needs to learn from Ukraine's mistakes. Ukraine's revolution and subsequent break from Russia intended to bring Kiev into the West. But the problem of political acrimony and corruption remains and is damaging Ukraine. Yerevan can be smarter then Kiev: a wise man learns from others' mistakes.
Armenia made its baby steps toward the West. It is a member of the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights. Yerevan, as part of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, must adhere to specific rules and regulations governing the transition to civil society.
Geopolitics is even more important. For Armenia, supporting the OSCE Minsk Group and on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is key. Pashinyan's unrealistic demands on Karabakh's breakaway statelet participation in peace talks is seen as bowing to the Armenian diaspora, especially in the Levant. This can further derail any progress toward peace.
What happens next in Armenia can also influence the security of both of its neighbors: Georgia and Azerbaijan, as well as a key U.S. interest -- sanctioning Iranian trade throughout the South Caucasus.
The bottom line is that America wants Armenia in the West, with Yerevan facing toward Europe and not Russia and China, and the Karabakh peace process moving ahead. Breaking the link between Armenia and Iran may also help loosen Russia's grip. For all this to happen, internal peace and cohesion are necessary.
Bolton's visit to Yerevan is a potent first step in this process.
Theodore Karasik is a non-resident senior fellow at the Lexington Institute and a national security expert specializing in Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East. He also worked for the RAND Corp.
