A developing storm over north-central Mexico will slowly swing across parts of the south-central United States later this week with drought-quenching rain and the risk of flash flooding, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Drenching showers and thunderstorms will first erupt along the Rio Grande Valley from southern New Mexico to the Gulf Coast Wednesday. From there, the main storm will move slowly along to the northeast, along the western Gulf Coast from Thursday to Friday. The storm will be in a perfect position to tap rich Gulf moisture and wring it out in the form of drenching downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms.
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Which areas will get the most rain?
Enough rain will pour down in coastal and even central parts of Texas and later Louisiana to lead to flash flooding in rural and urban areas.
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Motorists should be prepared for dangerous conditions in low-water crossings in rural areas, ponding on highways, and even flooding that may occur on some city streets.
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The cities of Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi and Victoria, Texas, will be thoroughly drenched from the storm, while areas farther north and west in Dallas, Abilene and Brownsville, Texas and Lafayette and Shreveport, Louisiana, will also receive a good soaking.
Along a portion of the central Texas coast, 4-8 inches of rain are forecast to fall with an AccuWeather Local StormMax&trade of 14 inches. While this amount of rainfall is on par with a weak tropical storm, it is not a tropical system.
Storm to ease drought in many areas
Rainfall deficits in Victoria, for example, have fluctuated from 40-65 of the historical average during last fall and into this winter. However, since Feb. 1, rainfall has been less than 25 of the historical average. Since March 1, that has dropped to a mere 6.
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The limited rain over many months and very little rain in recent weeks have significantly increased drought conditions. In some areas south and west of Houston, extreme to exceptional drought conditions exist. So where any rain falls in these areas, it will be extremely beneficial.
Next stop for the storm
The same storm system will slowly move into the Mississippi Valley by the weekend, where it may initially inhibit severe weather farther to the north and west. However, that may only briefly delay a potential severe weather outbreak later this weekend to early next week in the Central and Eastern states.
Preliminary storm into Wednesday
Prior to the rainstorm going full swing over southeastern Texas, a small and fast-moving storm will spread showers and heavier thunderstorms from north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma to Louisiana into Wednesday evening.
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