Personnel work at the National Hurricane Center during the official start of the hurricane season in 2022. NOAA released a climate prediction Thursday that shows wetter conditions in the northern U.S. and drier in the South this winter. File Photo by Cristobal Herrera-Ulashkevich/EPA-EFE
Oct. 17 (UPI) -- The southern United States can expect a warmer and drier winter, while northern U.S. regions probably will see wetter conditions, NOAA scientists said on Thursday in releasing their annual U.S. Winter Outlook.
And because of La Nina conditions expected to prevail this winter, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists say, some areas such as the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes could get drought relief.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says the weather phenomenon known as La Nina, during which temperatures in the Pacific Ocean cool, will prompt the conditions seen across the United States this winter.
The Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes region, along with northern and western Alaska are forecast to see chillier, wetter conditions, while the Four Corners region of the Southwest to the Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic states will experience drier-than-average conditions, NOAA researchers said.
"This winter, an emerging La Nina is anticipated to influence the upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation predictions," said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.
The agency credited a $100 million investment in computer and other technology for giving forecasters the ability to make the predictions by allowing for more precise research on temperatures, precipitation, overall climate, and ocean conditions.
"Understanding our climate system is essential for making longer-term predictions like the Winter Seasonal Outlook," NOAA said in a release Thursday.
Drought had lessened slightly in the Southwest, but the new NOAA data show a lack of precipitation and the La Nina driven weather patterns will mean a return to those drier conditions this winter.
"Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought," said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief."
Weather conditions in the remaining areas of the country will remain largely typical for the season, NOAA said.