In the wake of violent, deadly and devastating tornadoes and high wind gusts from Monday's severe weather outbreak over the Plains, the likelihood of severe weather and more tornadoes will continue over a large part of the central United States into midweek, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Thunderstorms erupted rapidly and quickly turned violent during Monday afternoon and evening, unleashing close to 250 incidents of severe weather, including more than a dozen tornadoes and hail ranging from the size of golf balls to softballs. One violent tornado tore through Barnsdall, Okla., where one person was killed and several others were injured.
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"There are going to be tornadoes in parts of Illinois, Ohio and Kentucky Tuesday afternoon and evening," AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno warned.
Forecasters anticipate a slight drop in the intensity of severe thunderstorms and somewhat lower numbers of damaging incidents Tuesday and Tuesday night. However, this does not mean that people should let their guard down, as approximately 80 million people will be at risk for severe weather, including in some major metro areas of the Midwest. All it takes is one tornado to pose great risks to lives and property.
"The strongest energy in the atmosphere will push toward the northern tier of the Central states, where the sky will be cloudy and less supportive of severe thunderstorms," AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. "There will still be plenty of energy left over in the Ohio Valley states to unleash severe weather, including the potential for multiple tornadoes into Tuesday night."
Despite rain-cooled air from thunderstorms that occurred in some locations Monday night and Tuesday morning, there will still be plenty of daytime warmth to allow more severe storms to fire up from the lower Great Lakes to the Ozark Mountains in Arkansas.
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Cities that could be directly affected by severe weather or where travel could be adversely affected Tuesday include Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Nashville, St. Louis and Louisville, Ky.
On Tuesday and Tuesday night, some risk of severe thunderstorms, which includes tornadoes damaging wind gusts and hail, will extend from much of Wisconsin and southern Michigan to central Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and western and middle Tennessee.
Within this zone, AccuWeather meteorologists have issued a moderate risk, where a greater concentration of severe weather, including tornadoes, is likely. This includes much of Indiana, western Ohio, southeastern Illinois and western and central Kentucky.
A small, second moderate risk zone has been added for a portion of the interstates 90 and 94 corridors in Wisconsin into Tuesday night. This is another favored area for rotating thunderstorms that can spawn a few tornadoes or at least produce large hail.
On Wednesday, the threat of severe weather will ramp up over much of the same area as Tuesday's threat zone. The number at risk for severe weather will jump to at least 125 million people at midweek.
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"We expect much more jet stream energy to be present on Wednesday, and that will lead to much greater destabilization of the atmosphere," Buckingham said.
The setup may lead to more severe thunderstorms and a higher number of tornadoes compared to Tuesday, as well as more intense storms that could translate to strong and long-tracking tornadoes.
A key to that intensity may be the extent of cloud cover and the number of showers and thunderstorms that compete for the energy available in the atmosphere.
AccuWeather meteorologists have outlined a high risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes Wednesday afternoon and evening from northeastern Arkansas and southeastern Missouri to southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western and central Kentucky and northwestern Tennessee.
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"It may not take long for severe thunderstorms to begin producing tornadoes on Wednesday," Buckingham warned. Tornadoes tend to form from discrete, intense thunderstorms, known as supercells.
The zone from central Ohio to central Arkansas is likely to be hit with severe weather for the second day in a row. In particular, the area from Louisville, Ky., to Dyersburg, Tenn., is at a high risk of severe weather, including the potential for strong tornadoes.
Over 120 million people will be at risk for severe weather on Wednesday, so many major cities and small towns will be affected. As the storms erupt and pass near the airport hubs in the region, flight delays will increase and the risk of cancellations will mount.
Because much of the Ohio, Tennessee and middle Mississippi valleys may be subject to two days of thunderstorms packing not only severe weather but also heavy rainfall, the risk of flash flooding will be substantially higher by midweek. The flash flood risk will continue in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio valleys and spread into the central and southern Appalachians by Thursday as more storms erupt.
The main threat of severe weather will shift toward the Atlantic and Gulf coast for the latter part of the week. Thursday could be very active in terms of severe weather, including tornadoes, especially in the mid-Atlantic.
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On Thursday, the risk of both severe and locally drenching thunderstorms will return to portions of northeastern and central Texas, including in areas hit hard by torrential rain and deadly flash flooding from last week. The downpours are not likely to linger as long over such a broad area on Thursday. However, there may be brief surges along small streams and rivers.
From late this week into next week the atmosphere over much of the severe weather- and tornado-weary regions will be less conducive for large outbreaks. A much-needed break will result that may last for a few days in some locations. There will still be smaller disturbances passing through that can bring periodic severe weather and isolated tornadoes in the next week.
