The storm-ravaged Plains will need to be on guard again to start the new workweek, as AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that another outbreak of severe weather, including strong and long-track tornadoes, is expected in the region on Monday.
AccuWeather meteorologists first raised the potential of severe weather for this stretch of May back in April and have been raising the severe weather threat level since early last week. An extreme risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, has been issued by AccuWeather, which is rare and reserved for the most dangerous events.
The extreme classification implies the risk of multiple strong, long-track tornadoes.
This threat of dangerous weather will kick off another multiday episode of severe storms that will expand east to also include parts of the Midwest, East, and South through the rest of the week. After that, a change in the weather pattern will bring a much-needed break in the stormy weather for the nation's heartland.
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| A tornado near Interstate 80 in Lincoln, Nebraska, on April 26, 2024. (Nebraska Department of Transportation) |
Following a relative lull in severe weather over the weekend, the same storm that brought heavy rain, mountain snow and gusty winds to the West will emerge in the Plains on Monday. It will be this system, combined with a warm and humid air mass, that will spark the potentially tornadic thunderstorms to start the week, say AccuWeather meteorologists.
"Thunderstorms are expected to fire quickly on Monday afternoon from west-central Kansas north into Nebraska," said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tyler Roys. "Here, the biggest threat will initially be from large hail."
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With twisting winds expected in the atmosphere, there is also an elevated risk for supercells and tornadoes, which can begin later in the afternoon on Monday. A supercell is a thunderstorm that rotates and often drops twisters.
"Supercells are expected to fire by the mid- to late-afternoon hours from western Oklahoma into western Kansas before moving east into the night," added Roys. "Not only will these storms likely contain a few tornadoes, but also giant, damaging hailstones."
Because of the tremendous risk for severe weather in the central Plains, AccuWeather meteorologists hoisted a 'high' risk for severe thunderstorms last Friday for Monday. The 'extreme' risk was issued early Monday morning and is situated across south-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. It is in this area where the threat of devastating, long-track tornadoes is greatest.
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Derby and the metropolitan area of Wichita, Kan., as well as Enid, Stillwater, and the metropolitan area of Oklahoma City, Okla., are included in this higher risk area, but Kansas City, Omaha, Neb., and Springfield, Mo., are also among the cities at risk for feisty storms. Everyone should have a way to receive warnings, especially after dark, such as by using the notifications feature on the AccuWeather App.
Monday's extreme risk is the first issued by AccuWeather since April 4, 2023. In addition to April 4, the only other extreme risk in 2023 was a few days earlier on March 31.
This region has been no stranger to severe weather as of late, with more than 100 confirmed tornadoes, some deadly, and over 1,000 incidents of severe weather reported since April 25. That tally is sure to grow in the coming days.
"We are probably looking at dozens of tornadoes being produced during the severe weather outbreak from Monday to Tuesday," AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
By Tuesday and Tuesday night, while the severe weather and tornado threat will shift largely out of the central Plains, it will impact millions more from Arkansas to Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and western Pennsylvania, including in the metropolitan areas of Chicago, Indianapolis and St. Louis.
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"The Tuesday morning commute is likely to be a slow one as a line of thunderstorms roars through areas from St. Louis to Fort Smith, Arkansas," said Roys. "Chicagoland should also get in on these potentially strong storms later in the morning."
There are some questions about how primed the atmosphere will be for storms later in the day, farther south and east on Tuesday, thus leading to lower risk categories for severe weather. Despite that, thunderstorms are still expected to develop again later in the day after some daytime heating provides fuel for the atmosphere.
"Areas from southeastern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio south through Kentucky are at greatest risk for storms from Tuesday afternoon into the night," noted Roys.
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The risk for severe thunderstorms will not abate after Tuesday. AccuWeather meteorologists say that dozens more states will be threatened by storms during the mid- and late-week periods. New injections of atmospheric energy will be responsible for maintaining this threat through at least Friday, extending all the way to the East Coast.
"A more potent day of severe weather is anticipated on Wednesday as an area of low pressure develops across the eastern Plains into Missouri," said Roys. "Widespread severe thunderstorm activity, including the risk of flash flooding, damaging winds, hail and tornadoes, can occur from northeastern Texas to the Ohio Valley."
Included in the risk area on Wednesday will be many of the same areas that were under at least 'some' risk for severe weather on Tuesday. Additionally, AccuWeather meteorologists have increased the risk for severe weather on Wednesday to 'high' across southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western Kentucky, southeastern Missouri and far northwestern Tennessee.
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By Thursday, the storm responsible for the severe weather will begin to move more briskly off to the east, expanding the risk for strong storms and even a few tornadoes into more of the South and mid-Atlantic, including the cities of Atlanta, Baltimore, Charlotte and Washington, D.C.
While the possibility of damaging winds, hail and tornadoes will catch the eye of many, so should the risk for flooding.
"Heavy rain can again fall from thunderstorms come Thursday between Interstates 20 and 10 in eastern Texas," added Roys. "This area does not need any more rain after the tremendous amount that fell earlier in the month."
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By the end of the workweek on Friday, gusty storms are expected to arrive in the Southeast, including as far south as resort areas in central Florida. While the risk for tornadoes appears lower here compared to areas farther north, the storms can still pack hail and damaging wind gusts over 55 mph.
By the time this week comes to an end, it will have been over two weeks since the recent rash of severe weather and violent tornadoes kicked off in the Plains. With little in the way of breaks in between weather systems over that timeframe, those cleaning up from the storms will be happy to know a much-needed break in storminess is in the forecast, say AccuWeather meteorologists.
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Drier air expanding across the Plains beginning on Friday, but especially during the upcoming weekend dates of May 11 and 12, will lead to a much quieter weather pattern across the region. This is especially great news because Mother's Day falls on May 12.
Even after those dates, early in the following week, conditions should remain quieter than earlier in May because the amount of energy in the atmosphere appears displaced from the region and weaker than is required for severe weather outbreaks.
