Census Bureau projects U.S. population to decline before turn of next century

Nov. 9 (UPI) -- The U.S. population will top out and decline before the turn of the next century as the number of people in the country was expected to fall by more than 1% beginning around 2080, according to new Census Bureau projections released Thursday.

The American population is expected to peak at almost 370 million in 2080, then decline to 366 million by 2100, while the projected total number of U.S. residents is expected to rise by 9.7% over the same period, according to the 2023 National Population Projections.

The Census Bureau cited several factors that were driving the slower pace of population growth through 2060, including an aging population, higher mortality rates, declines in fertility, and international migration.

"In an ever-changing world, understanding population dynamics is crucial for shaping policies and planning resources," said Sandra Johnson, a demographer at the Census Bureau.

The data updates previous projections published in 2017, with the latest numbers accounting for the 2020 U.S. Census and the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report, which recognized uncertain future circumstances that could alter the projections, used existing data to make assumptions about potential future population shifts, marking the first time the agency has extended these projections beyond a 75-year timeframe.

Researchers considered several hypothetical scenarios that could shape the demographic landscape of the United States decades from now, including a high-immigration theory that forecasts the population to reach 435 million by 2100.

Under low immigration conditions, however, the U.S. population would peak at around 346 million in 2043 before dropping to 319 million in 2100, the report said.

A zero-immigration scenario envisions population declines beginning in 2024 in the absence of foreign-born immigration, with a projected population of 226 million in 2100 -- roughly 107 million fewer people than estimated in 2022.

The most prevalent demographics in the United States were 58.9% White, followed by 19.1% Hispanic, and 12.6% Black.

Under a heavy immigration trajectory, the White population is projected to decline to 44.9% through 2060, while the zero-immigration scenario would only see White populations decline to 50.7% overall during the same period, the report said.

The Hispanic population is projected to increase to around 26.9% under all the immigration scenarios, while the Black population is expected to remain at around 13%.