1 of 3 | Lightning kills about 20 people in the United States every year, and between 2006 and 2019, more than 70 of lightning-related deaths occurred in June, July or August. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI |
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Millions of people across the United States have already had a taste of summer weather, and at 10:57 a.m. EDT on June 21, the season will officially get underway.
For some, the first taste of summerlike warmth arrived much earlier than normal, including in Washington, where the temperature hit 84 degrees Fahrenheit on March 23, the same day the capital's famous cherry blossoms reached peak bloom, which was about two weeks ahead of schedule.
However, winter seemingly never wanted to loosen its grip on the northern Plains, including Minneapolis, following one of the snowiest seasons on record.
While the official start of summer is still weeks away, AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters, led by senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok, is ready to release its annual summer forecast. And the forecasters say the season could get off to a fast start in terms of hot weather for about one-third of the country.
One month, in particular, stands out to AccuWeather meteorologists.
"Our team has concerns about July, which can feature many high-impact events like severe weather, wildfires, significant drought and flooding," Pastelok said.
A two-sided summer is in the cards for most of the Midwest and Northeast, with the weather patterns expected to completely flip part of the way through the season.
Similar to last year, the Midwest and Northeast could experience a wet and stormy start to the summer before drier conditions take over in August. As a result, people may have to mow their lawns on a more frequent basis during the first half of the season compared to the second half.
August could be the best month to visit the beach, go camping or partake in other outdoor events due to the downturn in rain and storms. However, the month will not be completely dry, so it will still be important to check the forecast.
Energy demand could also rise during the second half of the summer as the heat turns up. A few heat waves will be possible from late July through August from the mid-Atlantic through the Midwest.
The mercury is forecast to reach 90 degrees F more times in 2023 than in 2022 in several major cities, including Chicago, where the temperature hit the 90-degree mark 16 times in 2022, right around the historical average. AccuWeather meteorologists say there will be about 20-25 days of 90-degree heat in the Windy City this year.
New York City, Philadelphia and Boston are not expected to have temperatures in the 90s as frequently in 2023 as in 2022. Still, the number of 90-degree days will likely be near to above the historical average in each city.
The hotter and drier end to summer could cause some pockets of drought to develop in New England and the mid-Atlantic that could linger into the start of autumn.
The Atlantic hurricane season kicks off on June 1, and it may not take long for a tropical storm or hurricane to spin up in close proximity to the United States.
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean are warmer than historical averages. Pastelok explained the unusually warm water paired with the upcoming weather pattern in June and July could generate a "homegrown" tropical system or two near the coast of the United States. Homegrown systems have developed as recently as last July when Tropical Storm Colin quickly developed along the coast of South Carolina on Independence Day weekend.
AccuWeather is predicting a hurricane season close to the 30-year historical average with 11-15 named storms, four to eight hurricanes, one to three major hurricanes and two to four systems that will directly impact the United States.
Outside the tropical threat, the warm weather in the Gulf and Atlantic will "increase humidity levels and increase the chances of more showers and thunderstorms, especially if we see the pattern in June and July," Pastelok said.
Areas of drought developed over Florida and along small sections of the Gulf Coast during the first part of 2023, but a wet end to spring followed by the summertime storms and possible tropical impacts should wash away most of the drought concerns.
Similar to the Northeast and Midwest, Pastelok noted that areas of the Southeast could have some drier weather arrive after the calendar flips to August, but the month will still bring some rain, especially if a tropical system tracks near the region.
Severe thunderstorm activity has been rampant throughout much of the United States so far this year, producing a record number of tornadoes through the first three months of 2023. Thunderstorms will frequently erupt across a large part of the country this summer, and AccuWeather meteorologists expect more severe weather outbreaks.
"Severe weather can be quite active across the north-central Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and into the Northeast, especially in June and July," Pastelok explained. He added that Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago and Minneapolis may have more severe thunderstorms this summer, especially during the first half of the season, compared to the historical average.
There is also a moderate risk of severe weather in the mid-Atlantic this summer, including in New York City, Washington, and Pittsburgh. The risk will be slightly lower in New England, but storms can occasionally rumble over the region.
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The summer severe weather forecast for the United States. Map courtesy of AccuWeather |
Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible with the most vigorous storms, but any thunderstorm can spark lightning.
Lightning kills about 20 people in the United States every year, and between 2006 and 2019, more than 70 of lightning-related deaths occurred in June, July or August. Anyone who is outdoors and hears thunder should seek shelter and remain indoors until the storm has passed, forecasters say.
The ongoing drought will limit the frequency of severe weather in portions of the central and southern Plains, including the area commonly known as Tornado Alley, similar to what unfolded last year.
In 2022, extreme drought from Texas to Nebraska hindered thunderstorm development. With the drought still prevalent and even more widespread in Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma compared to last year, summer storms will be limited again in the central Plains.
Pastelok said the region could have a small uptick in thunderstorm activity this summer compared to the 2022 summer, but the rain will only put a small temporary dent in the drought rather than quenching the parched region's thirst.
Sustained hot spells may slowly take hold over the western United States this year following a winter with historic snowfall and excessive rainfall. The lingering moisture in the ground, paired with the cool water off the immediate coast, will lead to a delayed start to summery weather in some of the region's biggest cities, such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego.
Low clouds and fog will be more frequent along the coast of California during the early part of the summer, limiting how high temperatures will rise. However, this will only delay the inevitable. "You're still gonna have your dry spots in California and parts of Nevada and Arizona that are going to heat up at times," Pastelok added. "No doubt about that."
The interior Northwest and northern Rockies will have brief warmups early in the summer, but the heat will really turn up during the second half of July. As a result, the cooling demand is predicted to be much higher across the Northwest than in California, southern Nevada, Utah and Arizona, compared to historical averages.
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The cooling demand forecast for the United States this summer compared to the historical average. Map courtesy of AccuWeather |
Not only will the arrival of long stretches of summer weather be delayed across the West, but so will the arrival of the annual monsoon season. While many may believe a monsoon is a heavy downpour, a monsoon is actually a large-scale change in the wind that can promote rain and thunderstorms over a region of the world spanning weeks or months.
In 2021 and 2022, the North American monsoon began around mid-June, but this year, AccuWeather meteorologists say that it may not kick into gear until July.
The monsoon will deliver some rain to the interior West, but the more significant concern will be the lightning associated with the storms. Lightning strikes can ignite wildfires that could burn for months. Storms may also disrupt outdoor plans and create flash flooding in and around some popular national parks across the western United States.
Lightning from thunderstorms associated with the monsoon can spark fires across the West, serving as a natural ignition source for blazes during the upcoming wildfire season.
After three years when La Niña had a heavy hand in the storm track across North America, its reign has finally come to an end and is predicted to be swiftly replaced by its counterpart: El Niño. AccuWeather meteorologists say El Niño will develop in short order, but there are still some uncertainties weighing on the minds of forecasters.
"How strong is it going to become? Is it rapidly going to intensify [during] the summer, or is it going to be delayed? The stronger the El Niño, the higher influence it will have," Pastelok explained.
El Niño is a regular climate pattern that occurs when the water near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean is warmer than historical averages. The warmer water can alter the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere and the overall weather patterns thousands of miles away from the Pacific Ocean.
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Areas of yellow, orange and red near the equator in the Pacific Ocean and off the west coast of South America indicate where waters are warmer than historical average, indicative of a building El Nino. Image courtesy of NASA Worldview |
How quickly El Niño develops and how strong it becomes will determine how exactly it will affect the weather in the United States this summer. Regardless of its strength, Pastelok said it would have more of an impact on the tropics than anywhere else. This is one reason why AccuWeather is not forecasting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño will continue to reshape the weather patterns over North America through the remainder of 2023 and into the start of 2024.