April 21 (UPI) -- If the direction of crude oil prices is any indication, the price at the pump for consumers should start to move lower, motor club AAA said.
AAA posted a national average retail price of $3.68 for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline on Friday, only 2 cents higher than week-ago levels, but 25 cents higher than this time last month.
Crude oil prices surged in early April following a surprise decision from OPEC+, the core members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-member state allies such as Russia, to cut production next month. The price for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S benchmark for the price of oil, traded as high as $83 per barrel following the decision, but a series of data pointing to weakness in some major economies have pulled the price lower.
WTI was trading near $78 per barrel in early Friday trading.
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"The recent surge in oil costs took a break this week, with the price of oil tumbling back into the upper $70s per barrel," said Andrew Gross, a spokesperson for AAA. "If this oil price trend continues, drivers may see falling gas prices."
The price of crude oil accounts for the bulk of what consumers see at the pump, though elevated state taxes tend to keep prices above the national average on the West Coast. Drivers in Florida, meanwhile, are seeing a hike in the price at the pump as flooding disrupted the supply chains that bring gasoline to the state.
National refineries, meanwhile, are coming back online after an extended period of seasonal maintenance. The federal government reported that refineries were operating at 91% of their peak capacity over the seven-day period ending April 14, higher than the 89.3% from the prior week.
A surge in travel demand during the summer could create some tailwinds for commodity prices in general, though it's unlikely consumers will see a return to the $5-per-gallon levels from last year.
The federal government estimates gasoline prices at the retail level will be around $3.50 per gallon this summer on average, about 80 cents below the average from last season.
