Banking concerns have a silver lining in gasoline prices

March 24 (UPI) -- A major sell-off in crude oil markets has yet to show up at the consumer level by way of lower gasoline prices, though broader trends may be keeping a lid on any forward momentum, analysis finds.

Travel club AAA put the national average retail price at $3.44 for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline on Friday, relatively on par with week-ago levels. Prices at the pump usually start ticking higher from March 1, when refineries need to start making a type of gasoline that's more expensive to make for the summer.

Prices increased 5.5% over the first three weeks of March last year. The increase is closer to 1.5% over the same period this year.

"We may be seeing a return to seasonal trends in demand with warmer weather and longer days," said Andrew Gross, a spokesperson for AAA, "But waffling oil prices could mitigate any increase at the pump for now."

Concerns about a global banking crisis, triggered in no small part by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in California, led to heavy losses in the price of crude oil as confidence in the broader economy wanes.

The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, is down more than 10% since last week, when banking concerns started to spread across the broader economy. Crude oil accounts for the bulk of what consumers see at the filling station.

Consumers, meanwhile, may be feeling squeezed because inflation remains high and pandemic-era stimulus for lower-income households has ended.

Prices could in theory hit the $4 mark given that this year marks the first since early 2020 without major fears or restrictions related to COVID-19, but a return to the $5 level from last June is highly unlikely.

Market concerns stemming from the war in Ukraine pushed the national average price to around $4 per gallon last year, though the federal government expects that will be closer to $3.36 this year.