Advertisement

Survey of business leaders shows high expectation of recession this year

Most economists and business leaders still expect a recession in the United States in 2023, according to a survey by the National Association of Business Economics. File Photo by John Angelillo/UPI
Most economists and business leaders still expect a recession in the United States in 2023, according to a survey by the National Association of Business Economics. File Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo

Jan. 23 (UPI) -- Most economists and business leaders still expect a recession in the United States in 2023, according to a survey by the National Association of Business Economics.

Sixty members of NABE, which includes economists, government officials, business leaders and consultants, responded to the January survey on business conditions. The survey pertains to the fourth quarter of 2022.

Advertisement

More than half said there is more than a 50% chance of a recession this year. The rate of responses predicting a recession is smaller than it was at the end of the third quarter, when 63% expected a recession. About 3% believe the recession already has begun.

Many of the respondents are prepared for the recession to come quickly, NABE president and founder Julia Coronado said.

RELATED Stocks close down, putting all three major indexes on track for weekly losses

"For the first time since 2020, more respondents expect falling rather than increased employment at their firms in the next three months," she said.

"Fewer respondents than in recent years expect their firms' capital spending to increase in the same period," she said.

The NABE survey reflected data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on increasing wages, though wages are not keeping pace with inflation in most positions. Sixty-three percent said wages increased in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Advertisement

Survey Chair Carlos Herrera said the results suggest an "easing" of inflation while material costs are driven down. Costs are projected to fall in the first quarter of 2023, as well, though economic indicators are still difficult to get a bead on, Herrera said.

"The survey results reveal an unevenness across indicators," he said.

"Wages rose at a majority of respondents' firms in the last three months of 2022 and more firms added workers than reduced headcounts. But far more firms than in the past three years reported falling profit margins."

RELATED FTC mulling plan to boost job mobility

Latest Headlines

Advertisement
Advertisement

Follow Us

Advertisement