August may not see any tropical storms for just 3rd time in 60 years

Aug. 23 -- With a little more than a week remaining in the third month of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, there still has not been a single hurricane yet, and just three tropical storms thus far.

However, AccuWeather forecasters are keeping an eye on some faint activity that could develop into something bigger over the next week, although chances are rather slim that a hurricane will develop in the near term.

"While we are currently monitoring one weak wave of convection well out in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, conditions aren't projected to improve over the next five days, and tropical development is not likely," AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Sadvary said.

As for what's been preventing any tropical systems from spinning up over the last nearly eight weeks, "Dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert, combined with unfavorable wind shear has kept the bulk of the Atlantic hurricane season quiet so far," Sadvary explained.

The wave AccuWeather tropical forecasters are monitoring has been designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. Satellite imagery Monday showed Invest 90L was in a far-flung part of the basin and was flanked by dusty air masses.

There is plenty of warm water in the Atlantic, which would be perfect for hurricane development, if not for dry air blowing from North Africa.

There are a few other tropical waves being monitored toward the end of the month, which, Sadvary said, may lead to an uptick in activity, so it's still possible August will get one "buzzer beater" system in its final days.

Warm sea waters are the most important ingredient for cyclone development, and while many things are to blame for an absence of storms, a lack of heat in the ocean is not one of them.

"Overall, waters in the Gulf of Mexico, southern Atlantic and western Caribbean Sea are running 1-2 degrees F above normal," Sadvary said. "These anomalies get even larger farther north up the East Coast some waters in the North Atlantic are 4-5 degrees F above normal."

Historically, the early part of September is the peak for tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30. Tropical systems should have a better chance to form next month, Sadvary said, as ocean water temperatures will be approaching their maximum, and the Bermuda high, which typically dictates wind patterns over the Atlantic, should be in a more favorable setup for activity.

So far this year, there have been three Atlantic named storms -- Tropical Storm Alex in early June and Tropical Storms Bonnie and Colin in the first week of July -- but nothing yet for August. This month has been so quiet in terms of tropical activity that it could end up being only the third time since 1961 that there has been a tropical storm-free August across the Atlantic basin.

The year 1961 was an incredibly busy hurricane season, just not in August.

There were 12 total Atlantic storms, eight of which were hurricanes and two of those reached Category 5 force: Hurricane Esther in September and Hurricane Hattie in late October. Esther made landfall in New England, resulting in about $6 million in property damages -- $59 million in 2022 dollars.

1997, on the other hand, wasn't quite as eventful. There were eight total storms, three of them hurricanes and only one was a major hurricane, meaning it reached at least Category 3 strength: Hurricane Erika in September, a Category 3 storm.

Hurricane Danny in July, a Category 1 storm, was the sole storm to make landfall at hurricane strength. Those two hurricanes caused a combined $100 million in damages, $184 million adjusted for inflation, and were blamed for seven deaths.

This season seems even more lackluster when compared to the last two Atlantic hurricane seasons, which were two of the most active in recorded history. Last year's 21 total tropical systems ranks third all time, and 2020 tops them all with 30.