Midterms test a divided Ga. under shadow of 2020 election probes

July 25 (UPI) -- A race for governor and a hotly contested Senate seat are playing out in Georgia alongside an investigation into interference in the 2020 election there -- and against the backdrop of the public hearings probing the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Whether either inquiry changes votes in the state that is narrowly divided between Democrats and Republicans -- Joe Biden beat Donald Trump there in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes -- may be answered in the November midterms.

"Unless they are reading the state's leading daily newspaper, the Atlanta Journal Constitution, I would venture that many potential voters, particularly those who are Republican in party preference, are simply not being exposed to the information," Audrey Haynes, a University of Georgia political scientist, told UPI in a phone interview Monday.

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis empaneled a special grand jury with subpoena power in May to look into the allegations that Trump and others interfered in Georgia's 2020 presidential elections. Willis opened a criminal investigation last year.

On Wednesday, a New York judge ordered the former president's one-time personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani to testify for the Fulton County grand jury.

The order came a day after Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-N.C., agreed to accept a subpoena.

The Georgia case comes against the backdrop of the ongoing U.S. House select committee investigation of the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, which involves some of the same political operators.

On that day, armed radical Trump supporters stormed the building in an effort to disrupt the certification of Biden's election victory.

"You see these same players showing up in these different contexts," Charles Bullock III, a UGA political science professor told UPI in a phone interview Monday.

Also facing subpoenas is a group assembled by the chairman of the Georgia Republican Party after the election in an attempt to hand the state's 16 electoral votes to Trump rather than Biden.

"The highest-profile aspect of that was a phone call that President Trump made to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, asking him to find the roughly 12,000 votes that would be necessary to change Georgia from a Democratic to a Republican vote in the 2020 presidential election," Bullock said.

"The head of the Republican Party in Georgia, David Shafer, convened a group of individuals who purported to be an alternative set of electors to the Electoral College. One of those is Burt Jones, who is now the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor. Jones is pushing back against the subpoena to have him come and testify."

Jones has alleged a conflict of interest after Willis previously hosted a campaign fundraiser for his Democratic opponent in the upcoming election. On Monday, a circuit judge ruled Willis cannot investigate possible criminal charges against Jones.

But Fulton County Judge Robert McBurney did not disqualify Willis from investigating 11 other so-called "fake electors" who had attempted to quash grand jury subpoenas.

Haynes said Georgia midterms are not likely to be affected by the investigation, as most are not considered very competitive.

"At this moment in time, it is not likely that the current investigation of the Fulton County DA into the election interference is moving voters in a direction that is different from their partisan identifications," she told UPI.

Bullock acknowledges most Georgia voters are dug in, but believes a small number of independents could change their minds, which would be enough to make an impact in such an evenly split state.

"In Georgia, it looks like pretty much a 50-50 state. So, even though as I say, there's going to be relatively few voters whose decision might hinge upon what they hear and learn about from the Jan. 6 investigation in D.C. or the Fani Willis investigation in Georgia," he said.

"In a closely divided state like Georgia and several others, even as a fairly small component of the electorate -- if they are caught up in the investigation and they conclude that Trump and the Republicans have done wrong -- then that could be the whole ball game."

Haynes agrees, calling the governor's race between former state Rep. Stacey Abrams, a Democrat, and Republican incumbent Brian Kemp, the state's biggest contest.

"You can see how critical they are viewed as given the amounts of money raised for each race. Record-breaking amounts will be pouring into the campaigns, and we are likely to see them become the focal points of a great deal of national attention," Haynes said.

The state's lone federal race is the hotly contested Senate campaign between Republican Herschel Walker, a former NFL player who won the Heisman Trophy at UGA, and Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Baptist pastor who took office in 2021.

"There have been a few polls that suggest that Warnock is gaining ground, primarily due to continuing revelations about Walker's past business dealings, misrepresentations and falsehoods about his background and facts that seem to counter his official narratives about his life and work," Haynes said. "Even with a candidate whose reputation has been tarnished, there still seems to be a 'circle the wagons' and 'keep fighting' mentality from the national Republican Party."

She says it's hard to know what revelations will come between now and November, but expects there will be some.

"More and more individuals are making the decision to come forward with testimony and evidence ... of inappropriate actions that may certainly move into categories of misuse of power, and a host of other laws -- some broad, some technical -- as we get a clearer picture of all that transpired prior to Jan. 6 and after."