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Survey: Most economists believe recession coming by 2021

By
Clyde Hughes
Traders work on the the floor of the NYSE Exchange on Wall Street in New York City on Friday. Economists responding to a new survey say they expect a recession by 2021. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI
Traders work on the the floor of the NYSE Exchange on Wall Street in New York City on Friday. Economists responding to a new survey say they expect a recession by 2021. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo

Aug. 19 (UPI) -- Seventy-two percent of economists in a survey released Monday believe that the United States will slide into a recession by 2021.

The National Association for Business Economics survey said 38 percent of those surveyed believe a recession will begin in 2020 during the middle of the U.S. presidential campaign, while 34 percent believe the economy will hit a recession in 2021.

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In February, 67 percent thought the United States would fall into a recession in that time, 42 percent of the association's members believing it would happen in 2020 and 25 percent saying it would occur in 2021.

The survey, which was conducted from July 14 to Aug. 9, showed that while economists believe a recession is coming, some believe it will come later than originally expected.

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"Of the 98 percent of respondents who believe a recession will come after 2019, the panel is split regarding whether the downturn will hit in 2020 or 2021," NABE President Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, said in a statement.

"Respondent attitudes toward current fiscal policy have shifted significantly as well. The percentage of panelists who find current fiscal policy 'too simulative' has declined from 71 percent in August 2018 to 51 percent in the current survey. Just over one-third consider fiscal policy 'about right,' and 8 percent find it 'too restrictive,'" Hunter said.

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President Donald Trump rejected the cloudy economic forecast Sunday.

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"I don't think we're having a recession," the president told reporters. "We're doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut and they're loaded up with money."

White House Chief Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow rejected thoughts of a recession Sunday in an interview on NBC's Meet The Press.

"I sure don't see a recession," Kudlow said. "Consumers are working, at higher wages. They are spending at a rapid pace. They're actually saving also while they're spending -- that's an ideal situation."

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