While there are some areas being watched, including the Gulf of Mexico and off the New England coast, explosive tropical development over the Atlantic basin seems unlikely this week.
Much of the Atlantic basin, which is warm enough to support tropical development, has seen an overall decrease in the amount of dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear over the past week or so.
However, wind shear appears as though it will continue to inhibit development in two areas that have a remote chance of tropical development.
Tropical feature of interest
The first is an area of disturbed weather south of New England as of Monday.
This image taken on Monday shows a batch of clouds, showers and thunderstorms with a weak swirl structure south of New England. Image courtesy of NOAA/GOES Satellite
This feature is forecast to move rapidly to the northeast in a high-shear zone.
Development potential in this area is estimated at 10 percent. However, even if development were to occur, steering winds would take the feature out to sea at midweek with no threat to the United States or Canada.
"Environmental conditions will become even less likely for development for this North Atlantic feature by midweek," according to AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kotlowski.
Central America
Meanwhile, about 2,000 miles farther to the southwest, over the western Gulf of Mexico, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to gather later this week.
This is part of a broad area of disturbed weather centered over the western part of the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific Ocean.
This image shows Central America with areas of drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms over the western part of the Caribbean Sea and the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean on Monday. Photo courtesy of NOAA/GOES Satellite
AccuWeather meteorologists expect a significant tropical feature to be born in this mass of moisture, but on the eastern Pacific side of the land area, rather than the Atlantic side.
A tropical disturbance, or tropical wave, that emerged from Africa earlier in August, is forecast to move through this moisture area and turn northwestward into the western Gulf of Mexico this week.
"Development is unlikely, if at all, with this feature," Kottlowski said.
An uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity seems likely over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at midweek.
That batch of enhanced showers and storms may then brush the coast of Texas and perhaps areas farther to the northeast along the Gulf coast later this week and this weekend.
The western Gulf will still be watched for any signs of development during that time. However, wind shear is projected to be a deterrent for tropical development in the region.
Only if the small pocket of wind shear were to drop off over the western Gulf, might the door be opened for development.
During the first part of this week, the upper and northeastern Gulf coast will be the recipients of drenching downpours without any tropical disturbance nearby.
Those with beach or boating plans around the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the situation as there is a risk of gusty storms and the potential for rough surf and seas.
Cape Verde disturbances weak
Thousands of miles farther east, tropical waves continue to move off the west coast of Africa.
This image, taken on Monday shows a lack of organization to clouds over the Tropical Atlantic. Africa can be seen to the right of the image, while South America appears in the lower center with the Caribbean and part of the United States to the left. Image courtesy of NOAA/GOES Satellite
"This is the time of the year to pay special attention to these tropical waves," Kottlowski said.
On average, the risk of tropical storm formation increases dramatically with Cabo Verde disturbances from now to the middle of September.
The Cabo Verde season is named for a group of islands just off the west coast of Africa.
"There are two new waves we will be keeping an eye on this week," Kottlowski said.
"While we don't foresee development over the next few days, we can't rule out something slowly taking shape over the central Atlantic beyond this week and beyond due to the overall decrease in wind shear, dry air and dust across the Atlantic basin."
