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Major Hurricane Erick and Hurricane Flossie will pose a dual threat to Hawaii beginning during the middle of this week and continuing into early next week. Erick became the eastern Pacific Ocean's third hurricane of the 2019 East Pacific hurricane season on Monday evening, following Alvin and Barbara.
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As of Tuesday morning, Erick became the season's second major hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. It continued to strengthen throughout the day, eventually becoming a Category 4 on Tuesday afternoon with sustained winds of 130 mph.
As Erick continues westward through midweek, it will remain in an environment with very warm water and weak wind shear, two factors conducive for further strengthening.
Erick will encounter much stronger wind shear by the time it passes just south of the Big Island from Friday into Saturday.
It is during this time that Erick is expected to lose wind intensity, and Erick is likely to be a tropical storm or tropical depression during its closest pass to the Hawaiian Islands.
"As Erick passes to the south of Hawaii, rough surf and increased rip currents will impact the Big Island," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson.
Large swells will also batter the east-facing beaches of the Big Island beginning at midweek and continuing through the start of the weekend.
"The highest surf will be along beaches exposed to the open ocean, and rough surf may expand to south-facing shores as Erick passes by," AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff said.
Surfers and swimmers should use caution and stay out of the water if at all possible. Be sure to know how to safely escape the grip of a rip current if you decide to venture into the turbulent waters.
In addition, Erick will also infuse tropical moisture into the Big Island, resulting in enhanced showers and thunderstorms that could trigger incidents of flash and urban flooding.
While the heaviest rain is expected to remain in the windward areas of the Big Island, heavy showers are likely to spill over onto the western side of the Big Island as well. These areas do not typically receive rain in the absence of a tropical system.
If Erick tracks farther north than currently anticipated, then the Big Island may receive even heavier rain and the addition of gusty winds that could bring down trees and power lines. Maui and Lanai could also experience some showers and rough surf.
"Those with interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Erick this week," Erickson said.
In the wake of Erick, Flossie may track even farther north and bring another round of unsettled weather to the islands early next week.
It is too early to tell the exact track that Flossie will take, but early indications suggest that it may either pass directly over the islands or just to the north.
"Environmental conditions will be conducive for Flossie to strengthen as it moves in a general westward motion over the open waters of the East Pacific," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Flossie strengthened into a hurricane on Tuesday, but will likely diminish in intensity before reaching Hawaii.
At the very least, another round of enhanced rip currents, rough seas, showers and thunderstorms appears likely and may impact more of the island chain than during Erick's closest approach.
"The island chain will likely be subject to even more tropical threats in the coming months as AccuWeather meteorologists expect an above-normal hurricane season in the Eastern and Central Pacific," Duff added.
