UPI/CVoter poll: Clinton lead over Trump hits 5 percent

By Eric DuVall  |  Aug. 4, 2016 at 1:07 PM
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WASHINGTON, Aug. 4 (UPI) -- With a full week of data integrated since President Barack Obama's address to the Democratic National Convention, the UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton cementing a 5 percentage point lead over Donald Trump in the race for the White House.

Clinton leads Trump 49.6 percent to 43.8 percent in data released Thursday.

While Clinton entered the DNC trailing Trump, in the six days since it ended, her percentage of support has risen to a near constant 49 percent, while Trump's share has dropped steadily.

Trump has dropped 4.7 percentage points in the past week, which included convention speeches by Obama and Clinton, and the viral moment of Clinton's four-day gathering, when Khizr Khan, the father of a Muslim soldier killed fighting in Iraq, delivered an angry denunciation of Trump's proposal to ban Muslim immigration.

Trump responded by saying he was "viciously" attacked by the Khan family. He also questioned why Khan's wife did not speak at the convention, suggesting it was because she was required to be subservient to her husband because of their Muslim faith. Khan's wife, Ghazala, countered, saying she remained silent for fear she would break down in grief speaking about her son's death.

With both conventions now mostly incorporated in the UPI/CVoter data, the effects for Trump show a steady downward trend from his high water mark coming out of the Republican National Convention.

Seven days ago, Trump stood at 48.5 percent in the poll, which samples about 200 people per day and roughly 1,400 people over any seven-day span. One week later, Trump has fallen nearly 5 percentage points to 43.8 percent. Clinton, meanwhile, has ticked upward by a little more than 3 percent, going from 46.3 percent to 49.6 percent over the same seven-day span. Also, the percentage of "other" voters -- those who, for any reason, declined to specify Trump or Clinton -- increased slightly, from about 5 percent to 6.6 percent.

That means of the hypothetical 5 in 100 voters who left the Trump camp this week, they split close to evenly. Three went to Clinton and two joined the "others," and are now either undecided or leaning toward a third-party candidate.

The results were calculated based on online polling conducted from July 27 to Aug. 3. Because UPI and CVoter rely on online polling where users self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated. The poll surveyed 1,406 individuals, including 1,009 self-described likely voters over that time frame. The poll's credibility interval is 3 percentage points.

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