Fox News poll: Trump up 11 points in Iowa in last two weeks

By Andrew V. Pestano Follow @AVPLive9 Contact the Author   |   Updated Jan. 24, 2016 at 1:54 PM
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WASHINGTON, Jan. 24 (UPI) -- A new Fox News poll shows Donald Trump with an 11-percent increase in support among likely Republican caucus-goers compared to just two weeks ago, and holding a strong lead in New Hampshire.

The Fox News poll shows Trump with the support of 34 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers , followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with 12 percent. The other candidates were all in the single digits.

The poll, released Sunday, is the third in a row to show Trump leading in Iowa. Pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson was leading in polls of Iowa Republicans in October, but since Oct. 31, polls have showed either Trump or Cruz in the lead.

The last Fox News poll, just two weeks ago, showed Texas Senator Ted Cruz winning by 4 percentage points, with 27 percent to 23 percent for Trump.

The new poll, therefor, marks a distinct turn in the race, making a stronger case for a Trump win in Iowa.

In New Hampshire, the new Fox News poll puts Trump at 31 percent, Cruz at 14 percent, and Rubio at 13 percent. It is the 40th poll in a row that shows Trump on top in New Hampshire, and one of several recent polls that have shown him with the support of twice as many Republicans as the number 2 candidate.

But some numbers in the Fox News poll don't bode well for the Republican front-runner.

Trump is also leading polls not considered helpful to his White House ambitions. In Iowa, about 20 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa said they would refuse to vote for Trump over a Democrat in the general election, compared to 11 percent who said the same about Cruz.

Trump receives much of his support from first-time Republican caucus voters. Of all Iowans who said they will vote in this year's Republican caucus, about 38 percent are first-timers -- 43 percent of which support Trump.

Among Republicans who have voted in the Iowa caucus before, Trump leads with 28 percent over Cruz's 25 percent.

In New Hampshire, Trump is also the candidate who would make the most Republicans stay home in November. About 26 percent of New Hampshirites would not vote for Trump over a Democrat -- almost twice as many --14 percent -- as said the same about Cruz.

The Fox News Poll was conducted Jan. 18-21 by telephone with live interviewers by the Democratic firm of Anderson Robbins Research and the Republican firm Shaw & Company Research (R).

In both New Hampshire and Iowa, a sample of 801 registered voters selected from statewide voter files was used. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus five percentage points.

In poll averages by RealClear Politics, Trump leads Cruz in Iowa by 5 percent and in New Hampshire by 19.5 percent.

The closed Iowa caucuses are Feb. 1 and the New Hampshire primary election is Feb. 9.

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