Census: White children to become minority by 2020

The USCB says by 2020, white children will make up less than half of the nation's minors, and all whites will fall under that mark 24 years later.

Doug G. Ware
Fatoumata Sangary puts a hand on her heart when her mom becomes a citizen of the United States at a naturalization ceremony for 150 immigrants in New York City on July 2, 2013. Photo: UPI/John Angelillo
Fatoumata Sangary puts a hand on her heart when her mom becomes a citizen of the United States at a naturalization ceremony for 150 immigrants in New York City on July 2, 2013. Photo: UPI/John Angelillo | License Photo

WASHINGTON, March 5 (UPI) -- The United States Census Bureau this week projected that five years from now, white children will be in the minority -- and by 2044 whites will be wholly outnumbered by nonwhites.

The projection analysis released by the USCB cites multiple reasons for the change in population makeup, most notably that the number of immigrants arriving in the United States is higher than ever. The report also said that birth rates among white couples is on the decline, while nonwhite couples are experiencing a baby boom of sorts.


"Around the time the 2020 Census is conducted, more than half of the nation's children are expected to be part of a minority race or ethnic group," the bureau said, detailing that nonwhite children will that year make up 50.2 percent of the under-18 population.

The analysis further projected that by 2060, just 32 percent of U.S. minors will be white -- compared to 52 percent today. Just 29 years from now, the entire white population of the United States is expected to fall below the 50 percent threshold -- thanks largely to an influx of 64 million new immigrants.

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"The U.S. population as a whole is expected to follow a similar trend, becoming majority-minority in 2044," the USCB said, also noting that the nonwhite population will reach 56 percent by 2060. Last year, that figure was estimated to be around 38 percent.

However, non-Hispanic whites are expected to continue to account for the nation's largest single race for the foreseeable future. The number of non-Hispanic whites will decline from 200 million (62 pct.) today to 182 million (44 pct.) in 2060, the bureau said. Hispanics will account for 29 percent -- an increase of 114 percent.

"By 2044, the United States is projected to become a plurality nation," the analysis said. "While the non-Hispanic White alone population will still be the largest, no race or ethnic group is projected to have greater than a 50 percent share of the nation's total."

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Asian-Americans are expected to make the biggest jump of any one race, the report said, increasing by 128 percent by 2060. Those who classify themselves as only black, however, are expected to decline 8 percent to a group of just less than 60 million.

Further, the report notes, the United States population is expected to be nearly 20 percent foreign-born by 2060 -- a figure that presently stands at 13 percent.


The U.S. population, estimated at 320 million at the end of 2014, will cross the 400 million mark in 2051 and 417 million in 2060, the report said.

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However, the U.S. population is expected to continue to grow at a slower rate than it has in decades past.

To come up with the projections, the bureau said it used a statistical methodology that involves numbers from the 2010 census and other official estimates through 2013.

"Over the next four decades, as fertility rates are projected to continue to fall and modest increases are projected for the overall level of net international migration, the U.S. population is projected to grow more slowly," it said.

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Another significant projection the bureau makes is that by 2033, there will be more Americans over the age of 65 than there will be children under 18 -- a first for the U.S. population. The analysis credits this growth with the maturing of the "baby boom" generation, which accounts for Americans born between 1946 and 1964.

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