Syria: No end to violence in sight

WASHINGTON, Feb. 13 (UPI) -- An Obama administration official said U.S. and international pressure on the regime of Syrian leader Bashar Assad has "been effective" and the regime will "come to an end."

That extraordinary statement over the weekend came from Jack Lew, U.S. President Barak Obama's chief of staff and coincided with a week of continued violence between Syrian forces, Syrian civilians and some rebel gunmen in the city of Homs that left hundreds dead.

It also coincided with the Assad regime pouring cold water on the Arab League's plan to ask the United Nations to authorize a peacekeeping force for Syria, which itself followed the veto by Russia and China of a simple U.N. Security Council resolution calling for Assad to step down.

"Syria rejects decisions that are a flagrant interference in the country's internal affairs and a violation of its national sovereignty," an unidentified Syrian government official was quoted as commenting on the Arab League plan.

And there it stands. After months of bloodletting by the regime to crush dissent and months of international condemnation, the seeds of Syria's "Arab Spring" have yet to bloom.

Lew's comments certainly appear beyond the realm of reality and, as such, underline a central fact: No one seems quite sure of how to force the exit of Assad.

"The failure of the Security Council to agree on firm collective action appears to have emboldened the Syrian government to launch an all-out assault in an effort to crush dissent with overwhelming force," U.N. Human Rights High Commissioner Navi Pilay said.

Syria's upheaval began last March when dissidents, possibly emboldened by street protests in other Arab states, took to the streets in unprecedented demonstrations in Syria to protest brutality by the country's security services and to demand the release of relatives held in Syrian jails for alleged political offenses.

In a carrot-and-stick approach, Assad's government announced the end to 48 years of martial law but continued to quell demonstrations with gunfire and armored vehicles.

The protests in Homs, and then the capital Damascus, snowballed and soldiers began to desert. A resistance front of former regime troops appeared but without a territorial base to operate from within the country -- such as that by rebels in Libya -- they were unable to seize territory. The Assad government, despite imposition of economic sanctions by Western and Arab League states, carried on.

In January, Assad was as defiant as ever. Declaring that dissent was fomented by outside forces, he said his government would continue "hitting terrorists with an Iron fist."

A similar stance by Moammar Gadhafi in Libya resulted in a U.N. resolution calling for the protection of Libyan civilians from government retribution. The United States and other members of NATO used that proclamation as legal cover for military action in support of Libya's rebels.

Gadhafi is gone and the rebels have formed a new Libyan government. True, Libya remains in turmoil but that's beside the point for the moment.

What is the point is that the United States and others, who were so self-congratulatory on helping oust Gadhafi, show no inclination to do so with Assad. First, due to Russia and China, there is no Security Council resolution to give cover for military action.

Second, the world is understandably preoccupied with the Iran crisis and the prospect of a conflict that would have serious global economic ramifications.

And third, they just can't afford to spend the hundreds of millions to militarily intervene.

Finally, other actors are involved. Iran supports Assad, which is a geographic neighbor to Israel, which Tehran has vowed to obliterate. And now al-Qaida has voiced support for Syria's dissidents.

"This is a very different playing field, very different set of players, very different set of possible prospects," U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., said.

"I don't see the way forward in Syria as being Western boots on the ground, in any form, including in peace-keeping form," said British Foreign Secretary William Hague.

France has voiced a similar sentiment.

For now, it seems unlikely that Syria's people will find respite from the violence that is estimated to have cost 7,000 lives.