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Islamists appear heading for victory

WASHINGTON, Dec. 2 (UPI) -- Egyptian officials will soon officially announce results of parliamentary elections but the writing is already on the wall: It's victory for Islamist parties.

In balloting in nine of the country's 27 provinces, the Freedom and Justice Party is expected to claim 40-45 percent of the vote, with the Al-Nour Party vying for second place against liberal political groups, news reports indicate.

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The Freedom and Justice Party is the political wing of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, which was banned during the 30-year rule of deposed President Hosni Mubarak and which is opposed to the 1979 peace accords between the Arab world's largest state and Israel.

The recently founded Al-Nour Party is a fundamentalist organization that says society and government should be governed by the Koran -- Islam's holy book -- and Shariah law.

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Both are expected to continue their leads as the rest of the country votes in the remaining five stages of the election process for a Parliament, which will later draw up a new constitution for the country.

What that constitution will look like is very much conjecture but with Islamists dominating the 498-seat body it would likely give pause, at least in some areas, to secularists.

The Muslim Brotherhood, the best organized political party and social organization despite its earlier banning, has publically denounced terrorism and political violence and pledged its commitment to democracy. The face it has shown to the world is one of practicality.

How a confrontation with Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces would test that posture is looming closer.

The Muslim Brotherhood said that with a majority in a new Parliament it would name a prime minister. But council leader Hussein Tantawi recently named a prime minister to head the next interim government and analysts believe Tantawi's would willingly leave office come March.

Popular discontent against the military runs high in Egypt, and protests erupted in Cairo last month calling for an end to the military council, which is accused of trying to consolidate its power and privilege.

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The Muslim Brotherhood didn't take part in the latest demonstrations, fearing that spiraling street battles would result in the council canceling the scheduled elections. Whether it would continue that posture in a showdown with the council is anyone's guess.

The United States, which pours billions of dollars in military and civil aid to Cairo and other Western countries have so far refrained from comment on Egyptian voting other than to congratulate Egyptians on having an apparently free and open election process.

Israel's top leaders are holding their breaths. The Muslim Brotherhood has in the past promised to scrap the 1979 peace accord with Israel if it ever came to power, and recent polling in Egypt has shown the majority of the population is either of the same mind or in favor of rewriting provisions of it, especially where bilateral trade is concerned.

The Muslim Brotherhood is also the godfather of Hamas, the radical Palestinian group in control of the Gaza Strip. Egypt under Mubarak had clamped down on arms smuggling to Hamas but whether an Egypt ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood would do the same is an open question.

One round of voting down, five more to go and an uncertain future remains for the Arab World's most influential country.

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