BEIRUT, Lebanon, Dec. 3 (UPI) -- No one group is likely to gain any political ground in Lebanon from indictments from a U.N. tribunal probing the Hariri assassination, an analysis finds.
Lebanon is bracing for indictments by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is probing the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Hezbollah is widely expected to be named by the STL, though its leaders say it would react strongly, maintaining it has evidence that shows Israel may have played a role in the slaying.
Hezbollah has warned the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri to distance itself from the tribunal, though doing so could be a "political blow," the International Crisis Group said in a report on the situation.
Peter Harling, an ICG director for the region, said all parties in Lebanon may have to make sacrifices because of the complex political repercussions of the pending indictments.
"Banking on Hezbollah's tameness or Hariri's capitulation will only encourage the two sides to stick to uncompromising positions that could push Lebanon to the brink," he said in a statement.
The ICG report said the "best hope" for Lebanon lies in a series of "murky" deals that may include special request by Beirut to the U.N. Security Council.
Hezbollah's reputation is already harmed by the probe, the ICG said, but neither side is likely to gain any advantage from the indictments.
"No winner will come out of the current battle," Robert Malley, the ICG's Middle East and North Africa program director, said in a statement.
