KHARTOUM, Sudan, May 12 (UPI) -- Sudan appears to be sliding toward renewed conflict following fraud-tainted national elections in April as the Khartoum regime reportedly drags it feet on a crucial referendum on independence for the country's oil-rich south.
Khartoum, in the overwhelmingly Muslim Arab north, desperately wants to hold onto the oil wealth in the mainly Christian and animist south that would provide the economic backbone for a separate state.
The April 11-15 elections -- the first multiparty poll in nearly a quarter-century -- and the southern referendum are part of a 2005 peace agreement that ended Africa's longest civil war in which nearly 2 million people are believed to have perished.
The south is expected to vote overwhelmingly for separation from the Khartoum-ruled state in the January referendum. Khartoum isn't expected to let it go without a fight.
The delays in setting up the infrastructure for the historic vote have been widely laid at the government's door.
The Sudan People's Liberation Movement, which had fought Khartoum since 1984, doesn't want the referendum to be put off because it expects a landslide vote for independence.
Its secretary-general, Pagan Amum, accuses the ruling National Congress Party of President Omar Bashir of "stalling the referendum commission." He warned that having the referendum on time and accepting its results "is the only mechanism to maintain peace beyond 2011."
The NCP denies such allegations. But independent observers say Bashir's government and the authorities in the semi-autonomous south have still not established the referendum commission that must present the voters' roll by Aug. 31.
The regime has little real leverage in the south and its ability to influence the vote there is minimal compared to the interference in the national elections alleged by the SPLM and outside observers, including the U.S. Carter Center.
To no one's surprise, Bashir won 68 percent of the vote in the April elections, even though he has been indicted on charges of crimes against humanity in the western Dharfur region by the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Bashir, who seized power in a 1989 coup, is the first sitting head of state to be so indicted.
Many foreign observers said the voting, which was supposed to herald a new democracy, was marred by intimidation, fraud and gerrymandering. Just days before polling began, several of the main opposition parties abruptly quit the race, leaving the field open for Bashir.
Former rebel leader Salva Kiir was re-elected in the semi-autonomous south with 93 percent of the vote. Overall, the former rebels of the SPLM won a landslide victory to hold onto power in the south.
Underlining southern hostility toward Bashir's regime, southerners voted in large numbers for his main challenger, Yasir Arman of the SPLM, even though Arman withdrew from the polling to protest alleged vote-rigging. He ended with 22 percent of the vote.
Another key issue in the referendum has also not been decided: demarcation of the border between north and south, where most of the oil fields lie.
Nor has there been an agreement on how oil revenues will be shared in the event of southern secession. For the present, both sides split the proceeds from oil exports pumped from the south. These oil fields account for most of Sudan's oil production, which at 480,000 barrels a day is the third largest in sub-Saharan Africa.
The administration in south Sudan has received some $7 billion in oil revenue since the 2005 peace deal. Many question whether it is doing enough for its people.
But the SPLM's Amum says that given the neglect of the south by Khartoum over the last three decades, $7 billion "is not a lot of money compared to the real needs of the people.
"It's not enough to establish and run a government for four years … to build all the schools, hospitals and roads that we need."
In the meantime, the SPLM accuses the regime of stirring unrest in the south where ethnic rivalries have long been a serious problem. Some 2,000 people have been killed in this violence over the last year.
But the death toll from a resurgence of north-south fighting if Khartoum doesn't go along with the referendum, and the result if it's ever conducted, will likely be much greater.
