BAGHDAD, June 15 (UPI) -- Voter rejection of the referendum for the bilateral Iraq-U.S. security pact could create major problems for American forces, scholars say.
Iraqi voters are tentatively set for a July 30 vote on a Status of Forces Agreement, though recent developments suggest the vote will coincide with national elections scheduled for January.
Regardless, if Iraqi voters reject the measure, which some analysts say is likely, U.S. combat forces will be forced to change tactics very quickly at a time when security is imperative, the U.S. military's Stars and Stripes newspaper reports.
"It means we have to do a fast drawdown just as elections are happening, a new government forming perhaps, and big issues like the (ethnic disputes in the) north and oil, and 'Sons of Iraq' (paramilitary force) still unresolved -- very, very risky," said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior Iraq expert at the Brookings Institution.
U.S. combat forces under the terms of the SOFA are obligated to pull out of Iraqi cities by June 30 and out of the country completely by December 2011. A rejection of the measure at the polls, however, would require American forces to leave the country as much as 18 months ahead of schedule.
Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh told Stars and Stripes that Iraqi forces were ready to take over security responsibility, but acknowledged a premature U.S. troop withdrawal would handicap national forces
"It might create difficulties," he said.
