BRUSSELS, July 7 (UPI) -- In the Balkans, a move forward usually is followed by one or more steps backward. And last week was no different. Objecting to Kosovo's independence, the Kosovo Serbs convened their own legislature. But in Belgrade a new reformist government looked set to be formed, and relations with the West are expected to improve from now on.
The convening of a Kosovo Serb assembly was condemned by the Pristina government. "A provocation," said Kosovo's president. It underscores yet again that the Kosovo Serbs object to Kosovo's independence, the departure of the United Nations -- which has governed the area since NATO's 1999 bombing -- and any attempt by the European Union to take the world body's place with its rule-of-law mission, EULEX.
But though this was a step backward, promising to freeze in place a de facto partition between the Serb-majority northern Kosovo and the rest of the newly independent country, better news came from Serbia. There, pro-Western President Boris Tadic put the finishing touches on a pro-European coalition government after his party won a narrow victory in the parliamentary elections.
This week, a new Serbian government, led by technocratic former Finance Minister Mirko Cvetkovic, will take office. He will preside over a coalition of several parties, including not only the pro-Western Democratic Party but also the party of Serbia's late strongman Slobodan Milosevic, the Socialist Party.
Even though some of Serbia's international allies have expressed concern that the Socialists are to enter government -- and take the all-important Ministry of the Interior -- the government in many ways will be a welcome relief. It ends years of uneasy cohabitation between the pro-European president and nationalist Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, for whom opposing the independence of Kosovo became an all-consuming passion.
The new government is expected to continue the previous government's Kosovo policy -- rejection of any independence. It can hardly do any differently, given the prevailing mood in the country, the foreign minister's adroit diplomacy and Russia's support, which has seen the EU split on the issue and only 40-odd countries recognize Kosovo's independence.
But at the same time, Tadic is keen for the issue not to prevent developing closer ties with the EU. In Belgrade's political circles, talk is now of a so-called German solution: Like the two Germanies during the Cold War -- which refused to recognize each other legally but cooperated when they had to -- Serbia will continue its hard-line rhetoric toward Kosovo but will prevent any violence by the Kosovo Serbs and cooperate with the EU in practice.
A new government may also arrest Serbia's fugitive war criminals and turn them over to the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague. The most important is Ratko Mladic, a former Bosnian Serb general charged with directing the Srebrenica massacre of 7,000 Bosnians. He is believed to be protected by Serbia's still unreformed military and security services.
In the past, the Socialist Party opposed cooperation with The Hague tribunal, but the party's muted reaction to the election-time arrest of Stojan Zupljanin, an indicted war criminal, has gone some way to assuage concerns. To go even further, Tadic's Chief of Staff Miodrag Rakic is expected to take a direct role in the hunt for war criminals, thus bypassing Ivica Dacic, the leader of the Socialist Party and the new minister of the interior.
Putting Serbia back on the path to European integration will be the government's highest priority. The Stabilization and Association Agreement -- the first step toward EU integration -- has languished in Parliament. It is now likely to be ratified by a new Parliament, and after a two-year hiatus the Legislature may actually begin passing much-needed laws.
But while the SAA's ratification is likely to be quick, it will take longer to pass and implement much-needed reforms. The summer holiday beckons, and, without a clear list of priority laws, the government may struggle to show progress by the end of the year. Coordinating the government's work is likely to be as difficult as in the past. Without a party base, Cvetkovic will struggle to impose his authority over colleagues from his own and other parties who tend to see their ministries as baronial fiefdoms.
It is also unclear whether the Socialist Party will be a reliable coalition partner. Everywhere else in Eastern Europe, kingmakers like the Socialists have quickly turned into troublemakers -- often preventing EU-mandated reforms. Squeezed electorally by the nationalist Radical Party, the Socialists are likely to resist public-sector reforms and could use their newfound power to protect the oligarchs and former Milosevic loyalists who support the party.
This will bring it into conflict with the pro-reform G17 party, led by Mladjan Dinkic, which also forms part of the government. Nobody will want an early election, which could be a boon for the Radical Party. But the alternative may be a long-sitting, slow-reforming government.
In the Balkan two-step, one step forward is always nullified by one or more steps backward. The convening of a Kosovo Serb assembly has taken matters backward. But this time, progress in Belgrade may be enough to make up for lost ground. To ensure no further backsliding, Tadic will have to show immediate progress in a number of difficult areas. If he succeeds, however, he may help Serbia take a decisive leap forward and -- with the Socialists as unlikely partners -- transform politics in the region.
