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Analysis: Last chance for deal on Kosovo

By STEFAN NICOLA, UPI Germany Correspondent

MUNICH, Germany, Nov. 26 (UPI) -- Serbian and Kosovar leaders Monday began a final attempt to resolve the status of the breakaway Serbian province, but there is little hope for a breakthrough.

The three-day summit in the Austrian spa resort of Baden, near Vienna, will be led by the negotiators of the so-called Kosovo-Troika: Frank Wisner of the United States, the European Union's Wolfgang Ischinger and Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko of Russia. The three men are under pressure to broker a compromise before a Dec. 10 deadline, when they have to report back to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on how the final problem left over from the dismemberment of Yugoslavia can be solved.

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The Serbian province of Kosovo, which is dominated by ethnic Albanians, for years has demanded independence from Serbia, and earlier from Yugoslavia. Kosovo has been administered by the United Nations since 1999, when NATO bombing ended a bloody war between Serbian troops and Albanian rebels. Serbia, which considers Kosovo as its cultural and religious cradle, is willing to grant the majority ethnic Albanian province only a wide autonomy, yet Pristina has said it would accept nothing short of independence.

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The Troika-mediated talks were launched in August after a plan for internationally monitored independence proposed by Martti Ahtisaari, the U.N. special envoy for Kosovo, failed to make it beyond the U.N. Security Council because of Russian veto threats.

The negotiators over the next three days will hold closed-door talks with top officials from both conflict parties, and no information on those talks is intended to reach the public before Wednesday. The Serbian delegation is led by President Boris Tadic and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, while Kosovo is represented by President Fatmir Sejdiu, reigning Prime Minister Agim Ceku and his likely successor, former guerrilla leader Hashim Thaci.

Talks moderated by the Troika started in August, but there has been virtually no progress since then. And with the Dec. 10 deadline fast approaching, there is very little hope that a turnaround in the negotiations can be achieved in Austria.

Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic was quoted as saying ahead of the talks that he did not expect a compromise to be reached in Baden.

"Frankly speaking, there is little chance, and we warned of the reasons for this. Albanians are sure that after December 10, their demands for independence will be met," Jeremic said in an interview published Monday by Russia's Kommersant daily, adding that statements by Western leaders they would back Kosovo's independence were hurting chances to reach a compromise.

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The Kosovo conflict is also one between the West and Russia. Kosovo's demand for full independence is backed by the EU and Washington, while Moscow supports the position of Belgrade, which is unwilling to grant Kosovo more than broad autonomy.

Russia on Monday lobbied to extend the talks beyond the Dec. 10 deadline, a date the West has said should draw the final line under the years-long talks.

"We will insist on the continuation of the status process through dialog between Belgrade and Pristina," Botsan-Kharchenko was quoted as saying by the Belgrade Blic newspaper.

European politicians are worried Kosovo could turn into yet another frozen conflict, while Russia fears independence for Kosovo encourages other breakaway provinces in the broader region to demand independence.

Serbia's greatest fear is that Kosovar leaders after Dec. 10 launch a unilateral declaration of independence. Such a move, Belgrade has argued, would only increase instability in the Balkans. It would also put several Western countries in the unhappy position of having to decide whether to recognize such independence.

Kosovar leaders have nevertheless noted that they will not wait forever until their wishes for freedom come true.

In an interview with Austrian daily Kurier, Thaci, Kosovo's likely next prime minister, said he was convinced the province would be independent "very soon after December 10." Yet Thaci, whose party emerged as the winner from Kosovo's Nov. 17 parliamentary elections, added Pristina would "not do anything without the approval" of the United States and the European Union.

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