1 of 3 | The Financial Times of London released a survey showing that businesses and business leaders favor Hillary Clinton for president by over a 2-to-1 margin. Photo by Jim Ruymen/UPI. |
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The current state of America's presidential sweepstakes has turned into a national game show but with few winners. Less than a month ago, pundits were predicting a contentious and explosive Republican convention in Cleveland. The "Stop Trump" movement was gaining strength. A floor fight would be vicious. And the Republican Party would be ripped asunder by competing and unreconcilable factions.
Yet that did not happen. Donald Trump's two competitors withdrew. While the Bushes and Romneyites continued to say "hell no," Trump will be the GOP nominee. And forecasts of a shattered Republican Party have proven wrong. Obviously, winning the election trumped Republican principles. And the party has fallen in line to support if not advocate for the nominee. Wow.
Meanwhile, it is the Democratic Party that, to many observers, is in disarray. Bernie Sanders refuses to quit. Hillary Clinton is torn between finally winning the nomination and turning fire onto Trump. The convention in Philadelphia now seems to have inherited all the centrifugal forces that only a few weeks ago threatened to divide Republicans.
Further, the Damoclean Sword of Clinton's private email server persists. Trump's lawyers have delayed the trial over charges of fraud brought against his university until after the election. So the Republicans may have gained an advantage there. Meanwhile, the campaigns have become even nastier.
Democratic political action advertisements are going for Trump's vulnerable jugular concerning the fairer sex voicing over his particular slurs on images of women wearing provocative tee shirts highly critical of the Republican candidate. Sanders' rallies in California have turned violent and threats over assignment of delegates filled the media. And Clinton is turning her attack dogs loose.
Likewise, Trump is on the counteroffensive. Aside from reminding the public of Bill Clinton's past indiscretions, Trump has capitalized on using misdirection to confuse and confound Hillary Clinton. Releasing the names of 11 potential Supreme Court nominees and declaring a willingness to meet with North Korea's Kim Jong Un would, in normal times, be dismissed as nonsensical. In this election however, everything Trump has said, no matter how ludicrous or unserious, is being taken seriously.
Polls -- notoriously wrong at his juncture -- now put Trump a few points ahead of Clinton. While the Financial Times of London released a survey showing that businesses and business leaders favor Clinton by over a 2-to-1 margin and reflect worry and concern over a Trump victory, on the home front, what should have been a Democratic blowout appears to be far more problematic. And many observers and media cognoscenti who dismissed Trump as a joke or obscene political presence unelectable at any speed, let alone capable of winning his party's nomination, are now rapidly changing their once steadfast rejection of his candidacy.
In the different setting of war-torn Iraq, then-Gen. David Petraeus frequently would ask observers to "tell me how this ends." The same point could not be more relevant to the presidential elections. Assuming Clinton wins the nomination and the email sword does not descend, is she capable of defeating Trump?
Statistically, Democrats have presumably 240 or so of the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Behind with women and minorities and possibly much of the business community, Trump clearly has many obstacles to overcome. Yet, Clinton has proven to have a political glass jaw. While it would seem a rout in her favor, as quickly as the looming end of the Republican Party transformed into what might befall the Democrats, the electoral landscape could become as or more volatile.
The stunning fact is that both Trump and Sanders have energized a considerable segment of the public who are frightened and fearful of the future largely because of a government that seems incapable of governing. Trump only promises he can repair that government. Sanders mutters platitudes about taxing the rich and breaking up villainous banks while providing free public college education for all. And Clinton offers 10-point action plans that are cautious and most likely will have only marginal if any effect.
The campaigns have turned into grotesque game shows with the almost certain outcome that no matter who wins in November, America's government will remain broken for a long time to come. Should that dysfunctionality persist, the defining words of the Declaration of Independence cannot be ignored: When government becomes destructive, it is the right of the people to alter or abolish it and establish a new one.
Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist and serves as senior adviser for Supreme Allied Commander Europe, the Atlantic Council and the Business Executives for National Security and chairs two private companies. His last book is "A Handful of Bullets: How the Murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand Still Menaces the Peace." His next book, due out next year, is "Anatomy of Failure: Why America Loses Wars It Starts."