The consequences of Russia's policies towards Ukraine and its subsequent annexation of Crimea last March have become evident. NATO is increasing its activities in Eastern and Central Europe and the West, led by the U.S., has imposed increasingly stringent sanctions on Russia, and Russia has reciprocated in kind.
The need for a permanent ceasefire is underlined by the level of carnage. More than 5,350 people have been killed and at least 10,500 have been injured, many of them civilians, since the Ukrainian government began military operations in early April 2014 to oust pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions after Moscow annexed Crimea. More than a million people have fled their homes with 633,523 living as displaced persons within Ukraine and 593,622 living outside Ukraine, mostly in Russia. A Sept. 5 truce signed in Minsk intended to quell the pro-Russian revolt in eastern Ukraine has been followed by more than 1,500 more deaths.
Recognizing the seriousness of diplomatic inaction, the German, French, Russian and Ukrainian governments are belatedly moving towards talks to defuse the situation.
Behind the scenes, a fifth government is quietly and assiduously working to resolve the confrontation -- Kazakhstan. The Central Asian nation occupies a unique position in the complex diplomatic maneuvers -- as a former Soviet republic, Kazakhstan well understands Russia's mindset in a way that Western European nations cannot.
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev enjoys warm personal relations with all the major diplomatic players involved in efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis and has quietly and tirelessly worked to use that influence to further peace efforts.
European leaders seem to view positively Nazarbayev as a potential mediator. On Dec. 5, French President Francois Hollande visited the Kazakh capital Astana for talks. Returning to France, Hollande then made an unexpected stop in Moscow to discuss Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Washington also sees Kazakhstan as a valuable partner in resolving the Ukrainian crisis. Even before Russia annexed Crimea, on March 10, 2014, U.S. President Barack Obama telephoned Nazarbayev to discuss Ukraine. During the conversation the two leaders affirmed their shared interest in identifying a peaceful resolution to the dispute. On January 20 Obama again called Nazarbayev about Ukraine. According to the Akorda press office, "Nursultan Nazarbayev briefed Obama that he is personally involved in the matter, which, in the opinion of the Kazakh side, can be solved through negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France."
Furthermore, Kazakhstan has a unique non-European, post-Soviet political forum to exercise its quiet diplomacy. On Dec. 18 Kazakhstan took over the presidency of the Commonwealth of Independent States from Belarus. Formed after the 1991 disintegration of the USSR, the CIS consists of members Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and two participants, Turkmenistan and Ukraine.
Engaging in shuttle diplomacy, Nazarbayev paid an official visit to Ukraine on Dec. 22. Meeting with President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, he assured them of Kazakhstan's readiness to provide a forum for dialogue, telling the press in Kiev that he was committed to trying to end the conflict in Donbas. The next day Nazarbayev flew to Moscow and met with Putin, where he reiterated his message. Sensing the possibilities of a breakthrough summit in Astana, Poroshenko told a press conference in Kiev on Dec. 29, "My diplomatic year will begin on January 15 in Astana, where a meeting in the 'Normandy format' will be held. A relevant agreement has already been reached."
In France last June during the 70th anniversary Normandy D-Day landing celebrations the "Normandy" quadripartite format was established when Poroshenko, Putin, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met on the sidelines and discussed the Ukrainian crisis. Last October a presidential meeting in the Normandy format at level was held in Milan but failed to deliver any results.
On Jan. 9 Nazarbayev flew to Berlin and held talks with Merkel in Berlin, who the previous day had hosted Yatsenyuk. He urged Merkel to accede to a Normandy quartet meeting in Astana on Jan. 15. Nazarbayev subsequently telephoned Putin, urging him to attend the upcoming summit. The same day, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevhen Perebyinis announced that the German, French, Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministries were to participate in a telephone conference. Perebyinis told reporters, "On January 9, there will be a phone discussion in the 'Normandy format' between the foreign ministers, and they're to discuss a possible preparation to the meeting of the national leaders in Astana."
Despite Nazarbayev's urgings, Merkel remained skeptical about meeting in Astana; the day after meeting with Nazarbayev, Merkel called Putin and made it clear that in her opinion such a meeting was premature. Rising violence in eastern Ukraine subsequently derailed the Astana summit for the present.
Continuing his "telephone diplomacy," on Jan. 14 Nazarbayev and Poroshenko held a telephone conversation, discussing the current situation in Ukraine. On Jan. 21 the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France met in Berlin for Normandy format talks on Ukraine, but renewed fighting derailed their efforts to find a solution.
Russia has begun to show signs of flexibility in resolving the Ukraine crisis. Speaking to reporters on Jan. 21, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, "Only the people of Ukraine without any foreign interference must determine their future. Direct contact between Kiev and the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics are of fundamental importance in this context and taking into account the acute crisis in southeast Ukraine. ... We'll support any format that both Kiev and the self-defense fighters will accept."
Kazakh mediators may not see their proposal to host talks accepted anytime soon. On Jan. 27 as fighting escalated, Ukraine's Parliament declared the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk republics to be terrorist organizations, formally eliminating the possibility of holding peace talks with their representatives. Parliament also labeled Russia an "aggressor state." Nevertheless, Kazakh efforts are viewed in Europe as a possible means of breaking the diplomatic gridlock. German Foreign Minister Martin Schaefer told journalists that Berlin saw Kazakh efforts to assist in solving the Ukrainian crisis as invaluable, noting, "Nazarbayev is still taken as one of the most important communication channels with Russia and Putin personally by the West, especially in Europe."
Undaunted by setbacks and delays, Kazakhstan continues to offer its good offices. The same day as the Ukrainian Parliament's resolution Kazakh Ambassador to Belarus Yergali Bulegenov reiterated his country's offer to use Astana as a venue to peace talks, remarking, "This issue has not been removed (from the agenda) and remains intact. Our president has already discussed this with the leaders of the countries from the Normandy Group. There is hope that in using the venues in Minsk and Astana we can help stop the bloodshed and find compromises."
If Kazakh efforts bear fruit, the most immediately grateful will undoubtedly be the war-weary population of eastern Ukraine, who on Jan. 9 welcomed railway cars carrying $400,000 worth of Kazakh canned meat, sugar, buckwheat and vegetables to Luhansk oblast. Luhansk oblast state administration deputy head Olga Lishik said simply, "This is serious support for us... We are grateful that President Nazarbayev initiated the aid."
Dr. John C.K. Daly is a non resident Senior Scholar at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington DC.
