Futures trading predicts political winners

Jan. 3, 2008 at 6:05 PM
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IOWA CITY, Iowa, Jan. 3 (UPI) -- A futures trading market experiment at the University of Iowa predicts Hillary Clinton will be the eventual Democratic nominee and win the U.S. presidency.

The Des Moines Register poll may show Illinois Sen. Barack Obama leading the New York senator, but the Iowa Electronic Markets says shares on Clinton were worth 63.3 cents, more than twice that of Obama, worth 24.4 cents, Information Week reported Thursday.

The share values equal percentages of a party's voting electorate, the university explained. Trading in the candidacies for the Democratic and Republican party nominations has been going on since early March.

On the Republican side, the IEM showed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney emerging as the party's nominee in November by a margin of 29.6 cents to 23.3 cents for one-time New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and 23 cents for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was trading at 15 cents and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, at 3.6 cents.

The IEM is an ongoing test in the university's College of Business to determine whether the marketplace presents a more realistic outcome of campaigns, the magazine reported.

In 1996, 2000, and 2004, it called close presidential races correctly.

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