WASHINGTON, Oct. 17 (UPI) -- Studies by U.S. political scientists are predicting that Democrats will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the Nov. 7 elections.
A study by Indiana State's Carl Klarner and Stan Buchanan said Democrats are likely to gain 22 seats in the House and two or three seats in the U.S. Senate. While they see the Senate remaining in Republican control, they say there is a 94.9 percent probability the Democrats will control the house in January.
A report from Alan Abramowitz from Emory University estimates the Democrats will gain 29 House seats and two or three seats in the Senate.
Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to take control of the House and need to gain six seats to control the Senate.
The Klarner and Buchanan study examined district partisan composition, candidate attributes and national partisan tides. Abramowitz' data consider six factors, including "the midterm penalty for the president's party" and the difference between Republican and Democratic open seats.
The studies are detailed in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics.
