WASHINGTON, July 5 (UPI) -- The Bush campaign's chief strategist warned supporters to expect the Democrats to get a bounce in the polls as the post-primary season winds down.
Gallup presidential election polls since 1976 show the out-of-power party's "vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers," Bush chief strategist Matthew Dowd said in a memo released Monday.
An analysis of historical trends, Dowd said, predicts Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., the Democrat's likely presidential nominee, "should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention."
According to most recent public polls the presidential race remains a dead heat.
"Assuming Kerry enjoys the average challenger's bounce," which has been 15.4 percent since 1976, "we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to (Kerry's) favor by early August," Dowd said.
The Democrats apparently hold the same view. On Sunday, Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted Kerry would, when the Boston nominating convention ends, be ahead by eight to 12 points.
