WASHINGTON, May 29 (UPI) -- The pursuit of Kosovo's independence from Serbia represents the only prospect for long-term stability in the Balkans and must not be put off, according to a recent report from an influential Washington think tank.
"We need to take the lid off this (problem) and turn the fire down," said Paul Williams, a professor at American University's Washington College of Law and co-author of the report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"The only way to do this is through some kind of phased-in independence," he told United Press International.
In the policy brief, "Achieving a Final Status Settlement for Kosovo," William and his co-authors -- Janusz Bugajski, director of the CSIS Eastern Europe project, and R. Bruce Hitchner, chairman of the Dayton peace accords project at the University of Dayton -- say that continued international delay and ambiguity over the final status of Kosovo not only exacerbates the ethnic tensions in the region but also contributes to political and economic stagnation in the Balkans.
The authors argue that a freely elected government in Kosovo would reduce the potential for social unrest in the region between ethnic Albanians, Serbs and Kosovars. In addition, they say such a move would promote the rule of law and pluralism by making Kosovo a sovereign entity rather than a protectorate of the international community.
James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corporation and former secretary of state for Kosovo in the Clinton administration, said that the move toward independence was postponed following the U.S. air campaign in the country in 1999 because the region remained unsettled. Dobbins, who formerly supervised peace operations in Kosovo, noted that there were fears at the time that an effort to develop an independent Kosovo would make it more likely that the regime of Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic would remain in power.
"It would have caused civil war in Macedonia more than settle the problems and would have in general made the region more unstable," Dobbins told UPI. "I think those problems have now been largely addressed."
He pointed out that Serbia has had a democratic transition of government and that the civil conflict in Macedonia has been largely addressed since that time. Nevertheless, the unresolved nature of Kosovo's status as potential independent state continues to be an obstacle to reconciliation between the ethnic groups in the region. In addition, he cautioned that with Kosovo functioning as a ward of the international community, it has come to rely on substantial international assistance for survival.
"We have given the (post-war) process some time and it is probably worth turning to the issue of Kosovo," said Dobbins. "I wouldn't say there are not still concerns but it (the region) is peaceful at the moment. I always believed that the only result that would satisfy a majority of the people is some form of independence."
Specifically, the CSIS report says that independent statehood for Kosovo is only possible if there is also additional international support for a Serbian nation independent from Kosovo and Montenegro. A package of incentives provided in return for Serbia's agreement to relinquish claims to control over the Kosovo territory could be used to ensure Serbian cooperation.
The report also calls for the implementation of a so-called road map and timetable for the pursuit of governmental standards and institution building within Kosovo, along with clear steps for negotiating independence. In addition, Kosovo would need increased international assistance, especially from the European Union, which must be actively involved in the process.
Williams stressed that the process must be a gradual one, that immediate independence would not work and only exacerbate ethnic rivalries. He also said that the Kosovo government must also be able to show that progress is being made, that minority and human rights are being protected and that adequate political representation is being provided for all ethnic groups before full sovereignty is granted.
Charles A. Kupchan, director of European studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that the problems in the Balkans are ones that must be addressed but that are not receiving enough attention from policymakers.
"Unfortunately, the Balkans as a whole have slipped off the radar screen and there are a lot of unresolved problems, some of which have the potential to flare up in the not too distant future," said Kupchan. "I would agree with CSIS that the Balkans would be better off with Kosovo separate from Serbia, whether that means a completely independent state or some autonomous republic or loose confederation is debatable."
He said the issue is largely being ignored because no one wants to deal with the sticky issue of possible border changes in order to gain Serbian support for an independent Balkan state. The European Union is of the mindset that the Balkans should be allowed to integrate slowly and naturally into Europe as they currently are, a process it is believed would ultimately solve the ethnic and religious disputes that divide the region. Kupchan was critical of such a move, arguing that this is unlikely to produce the intended result.
Anther problem with moving forward with Kosovo statehood at this time is that the region may only be stable because the international community is there to monitor the situation and provide aid.
Tom Carothers, senior associate and director of the democracy and rule of law project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that although the United States must be involved in the process, the Europeans must take the lead on the issue.
"I think it is time for the Europeans and the United States to address a medium-range approach to this and stop putting off the question of independence," Carothers told UPI. "(But) I think that this is going to depend a lot on Western Europe. We can push on this but if the United States moves on this without European backing, it will not happen."
Williams countered that while negotiations should be international in focus, the United State must take the lead on the issue because the Europe has proven incapable of handling the problems of the Balkans.
"We should never turn to them, we learned that for eight years from 1992-2000," he said. "The Europeans are incapable of dealing with this (effectively)."
The recommendation to move forward in negotiating independent statehood for Kosovo is not without its critics who argue that the timing is off and the negotiations are fraught with dangerous consequences. Despite his support for the idea, Dobbins said one factor that has to be taken into account is that an independent Kosovo could prove to be a destabilizing force in neighboring Macedonia.
John Hulsman, a research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said the CSIS proposal shows blindness to the realities of the current states of geopolitics in Europe. He said that with the relationship between the United States and its European allies on the rocks over the war in Iraq, the prospect of working on the issue together is limited.
In addition, he said that although the lack of progress toward Kosovo independence could ultimately prove to be a destabilizing force in the Balkans, significant problems are unlikely in the near term.
"In the long run, we have to address the statehood problem but it is not on our path right now," said Hulsman. "The idea that this makes it to the top of the list (of American foreign policy priorities) is laughable."
Kupchan added that the situation in Kosovo holds important lessons for the United States' effort at nation building in Iraq. He said it shows that Americans should be "extremely sober" about the prospects for a stable democracy and liberal government in the Middle Eastern country.
For one, the Balkans have a higher level of intellectual capital than Iraq. "If we have had this much trouble in Southeast Europe, it doesn't encourage us to be optimistic about the prospects in Iraq," he said.
