MIAMI, April 8 (UPI) -- A crackdown by Fidel Castro's regime on dissidents in Cuba comes as a surprise to some experts on the nation because of its intensity.
More than three dozen dissidents have been given prison terms of up to 27 years, the harshest sentences for anti-government leanings in more than three decades.
"The penalties are so outrageous, so out of the norm, it is surprising. This is a throwback to the 1960s," Florida International University Professor Damian Fernandez said Tuesday.
"It was in the 1960s that the Cubans gave out sentences of 30 years. We haven't seen those kinds of sentences since then," said Fernandez, an international relations specialist who wrote the book, "Cuba and the Politics of Passion."
The United States' top diplomat in Cuba, James Cason, warned in a speech at the University of Miami on Monday night that the crackdown could result in another mass exodus to Florida, such as the Mariel sealift in 1980.
"The continued disintegration of Cuban society generates instability throughout the region and creates the threat of mass migration to the United States," said Cason, head of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana. "This undermines our security and the long-term potential for the Cuban nation."
There were conflicting reports that 36 to 43 dissidents had been sentenced, but there were also reports there were more sentences to come. The trials began Thursday in 14 courtrooms across Cuba.
The toughest penalties were imposed on independent journalists and supporters of the Varela Project, a petition drive intended to change the Cuban political system. One of those who were not arrested is Oswaldo Paya, head of the drive who has received the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, the European Union's most prestigious human rights award.
The dissidents had gained momentum after the visit by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter to Cuba last year and the attention he paid to the Varela project.
About 80 dissidents were arrested last month. Cuba accused U.S. diplomats of paying the opposition to destabilize the government.
Cason said that wasn't true. He said diplomats in Havana make it clear to dissidents "that we are not here to tell you what to do or give you advice.
"I try to do things in Cuba that (Cuban diplomats) are doing in the United States," he said.
He added, however, that Cuban diplomats give speeches and meet with government officials in the United States, while U.S. diplomats in Cuba are not allowed to do that.
But Fernandez said Cason is the most active special interests chief he can remember.
"He has been more proactive than his predecessors -- more proactive in reaching out to dissident groups," the professor said.
Fernandez also said changes in the Cuban-American community in Miami have been difficult for Cuban officials.
"A more pragmatic, moderate, nuanced, pluralistic center is emerging and faced with those developments in Miami, Cuba does not know how to respond," he said. "Cuba has always reacted with its own passion to passion across the Florida Straits. Now there is not as much fire in Miami."
Fernandez said speculation that Cuba is cracking down while the world's attention is diverted by the war in Iraq might be true.
But the timing also hurts Cuba, he said. The Human Rights Commission is meeting this month in Switzerland and the European nations are this week considering their trade relations with Cuba.
He said Cuba also had to cancel a conference to be attended by both Cubans and Americans this month.
"It's obviously going to derail any move in Congress to become more open toward Cuba," he said.
"The primary objective is political control. This shows the state is refusing to accommodate. It is still encapsulated in the old maximalist philosophy," he said.
"There are two ways they can go," he said. "You can increase the heat or turn it down. If this is the new pattern, the ultimate logic could lead to confrontation, civil war. Stretched, this could mean the military and police attacking the population, but I don't know if they would shoot they're own people."
He said the arrests and trials have been kept a secret from ordinary Cubans, but those on the inside also have to be concerned.
"People in the (Communist) party, the military and technocrats trying to get out of a deep economic slump -- they can't be happy with this," he said.
Fernandez said the reason could be the "arrogance of power," but it "also could be a sign of weakness. It shows other levels of pressure have failed."
