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Feature: Hurricane season ends

By LES KJOS

MIAMI, Nov. 28 (UPI) -- Thanks to El Nino, the 2002 Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season winds up Saturday after only four hurricanes.

"A strengthening El Nino suppressed the numbers of hurricanes and weakened storms," said Jack Kelly, director of the National Weather Service. "Thanks to El Nino's influence, we experienced only four hurricanes -- half the number we've seen in typical seasons since 1995."

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El Nino is a warm body of water that periodically develops from the South American west coast to the International Date Line in the Pacific. It can produce strong westerly winds that move across North America and the Atlantic and rip the tops off storms.

Elsewhere in the nation, particularly on the West Coast, it's a troublemaker, producing dangerous storms.

Despite the phenomenon, the U.S. mainland was hit by a bumper crop of six tropical storms, and one hurricane. Louisiana had a rough season, getting hit by a hurricane and three tropical storms.

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Hurricane Lili became the first hurricane to hit the United States since Irene in 1999, when it came ashore south of Intracoastal City, La., Oct. 3. Damage was estimated at $700 million to the state and others as it moved over the east-central part of the country.

Before it hit Louisiana, Lili raised cane in the Caribbean, killing four people in St. Vincent and four more in Jamaica. It also caused heavy damage in Haiti and western Cuba before developing into a major Category 4 storm in the Gulf of Mexico and threatening the United States.

But then it weakened rapidly before rolling ashore in Louisiana as a borderline Category 1-2 hurricane.

In all, 19 deaths were blamed on hurricanes this year, nine of them in the United States. Total damage in the United States during the season was estimated at $900 million.

Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, said forecasting the paths of tropical storms continued to improve this year, partly because of accurate computer forecast models.

"The landfall of Hurricane Lili in Louisiana was well forecast nearly three days in advance," he said. "However, intensity forecasts did not capture Lili's rapid weakening in the 12 hours before landfall. We are working through the U.S. Weather Research Program to improve intensity forecasting."

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The bottom-line statistics show there were 12 tropical storms, four becoming hurricanes. Hurricanes Lili and Isidore were classified as major.

Long-range forecasting specialist William Gray of Colorado State University predicted in his revised forecast Aug. 7 there would be nine tropical storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane -- Category 3 with 115 mph winds or more.

Hurricane forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had forecast before the season began June 1 there would be seven to 10 tropical storms, and four to six hurricanes, with one to three classified as major.

Jim Laver, director of the Climate Prediction Center, said there were two more storms than the 7-10 predicted but because several named storms were weak and didn't last long, they contributed little to the scientific measure of diminished "overall activity."

Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, said there were other highlights during the season.

"We had the most active September on record with eight named storms and a ninth that was a carryover from August," he said. "Hurricane Kyle lasted 22 days. That was the third most enduring storm on record."

Kyle developed as a tropical storm Sept. 20 and lasted until Oct. 12, finally making landfall near Myrtle Beach, S.C., Oct. 9 as a weak tropical storm.

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The storms and hurricanes that hit the United States were Bertha, Edouard, Fay, Hanna, Kyle, Lili and Isidore. Gustav passed near Cape Hatteras, N.C., Nov. 10, bringing heavy surf and thunderstorms.

Isidore was the other major hurricane of the season, along with Lili. After raking Jamaica and Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane, Isidore developed into a Category 3 and rolled ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula where it killed six.

It then emerged over the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds near Grand Isle, La.

Among the good news, the hurricane season produced was the public use of the Internet for information from hurricane forecasters, Mayfield said.

"The explosive use of the Internet to convey vital information to the public in near real time has been astonishing," he said. "Between August and September the National Hurricane Center Web site recorded almost 500 million hits."

Mayfield said the peak day was Oct. 3, when Hurricane Lili hit Louisiana.

He said the site "recorded 35.9 million hits, doubling the previous record set in 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. We are saving lives, thanks to the Internet."

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