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Analysis: Flanking from the left

By PETER ROFF, UPI National Political Analyst

WASHINGTON, Jan. 17 (UPI) -- In a speech Wednesday to the National Press Club, Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., called for significant delays in the implementation of the 2001 tax cut.

This is not surprising. Kennedy has long been Washington's leading liberal, working hard to move America to the left, following through on the course charted by his late brother Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, D-N.Y., in his short-lived 1968 presidential campaign.

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Kennedy's call for higher taxes is not surprising, even among Democrats.

Consultant Steve McMahon, a partner in the Democrat firm Trippi, McMahon and Squire, says Kennedy is playing the role he has long held, liberal standard-bearer.

The speech was an example of Kennedy doing "what he so often does," McMahon says. "He is the gold standard for the Democratic Party in terms of ideological purity."

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Ever since Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., gave his major address on the economy in early January, he has been under attack from Republicans for advocating an increase in taxes.

Democrats are quick to point out that Daschle was careful in his remarks, calling for neither a tax increase nor for a delay in the implementation of the coming tax cuts that made up the 2001 bill.

The country, however, did not see it that way.

Pollster David Winston, an adviser to the Republican congressional leadership, points to public polls that give Daschle poor marks for his economic plans.

"One of the most interesting numbers of the last few days," Winston says, is the CNN/USA Today/Gallup number. In a survey of over 1,000 adults, his favorable/unfavorable rating is 39/25" -- meaning 35 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion of the South Dakota Democrat while 25 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Winston says: "That translates into a not very good public image (of Daschle) at this time. He has defined himself as the guy who will stop Bush, who will roll back the tax cuts" and that is not what the American people want, based on the numbers.

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Enter Kennedy, who placed his considerable political weight behind a push for a rollback of tax cuts. Winston thinks this will not help.

"Kennedy is trying to continue the same strategy but the numbers show the American people do not approve of the direction in which they want to go," Winston says.

But Kennedy's move was not just about policy; it was also about politics.

McMahon says that Kennedy "did Sen. Daschle a favor by helping position Daschle's speech on the economy in the middle -- where he was basically critical of the tax cut" rather than at the opposite end of Bush.

"Sen. Kennedy and George Bush [now] occupy the opposite polls on the issue. Daschle is unwilling to defer taxes already cut while willing to consider a stimulus package that helps those most hurt by the economic downturn, the middle class," McMahon says.

Winston says the poll numbers reflect a generally unfavorable feeling about Daschle's economic plan, at least as far as taxes are concerned. McMahon thinks the attention will benefit Democrats.

"It seems rather obvious that with deficits reappearing while the surplus disappears," he says, "the nation cannot long afford to wage a two-front war on recession and terrorism while schools are failing and the economy is showing scant signs of improvement."

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Winston thinks the effect will be exactly the opposite.

"The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll says 59 percent of the population says keep the tax cuts as planned or speed them up. Kennedy and Daschle are on the side of the 36 percent who say stop them. Who is also on the same side as the 59 percent? The Senate Democrats who are crucial to Daschle's operational control of the U.S. Senate," Winston says.

At Wednesday's regular news briefing, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer took the opportunity to highlight that division.

Responding to a question about Kennedy's speech, Fleischer says, "Not only does the White House dispute the premise of what Sen. Kennedy proposed, but many Democrats in the Senate do as well -- especially conservative Democrats and Democrats who have worked with the White House in a bipartisan way on tax issues. [Kennedy's speech] really exposes some big differences within the Democratic Party, particularly with the rank and file."

Winston thinks changing the messenger from Daschle to Kennedy will not help.

"Inside the Beltway, the distinctions between Kennedy and Daschle might be clear but in the rest of the country, Kennedy is a spokesman for the Democratic Party. I'm not sure that Democrats running in swing states are especially wild about Ted Kennedy being the one to define the party's message on taxes," he says, unless Daschle himself moves to highlight the difference.

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"Is Kennedy articulating the genuine feelings of his party's left wing?" he asks. "Absolutely. Will [House Minority Leader Dick] Gephardt and Daschle explicitly state their disagreement for what Kennedy said on Wednesday? If they don't, there is tacit agreement on the policy - because that is people's perception of the Democrats. The American people will assume Kennedy's speech was made with a wink and a nod to Daschle," Winston says.

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