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Fantasy Football 2018: Draft targets, possible busts

By Alex Butler
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan looks on prior to an NFC divisional playoff game on January 13 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Photo by Derik Hamilton/UPI
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan looks on prior to an NFC divisional playoff game on January 13 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Photo by Derik Hamilton/UPI | License Photo

Aug. 30 (UPI) -- There are several players you should target on fantasy football draft day, based on ease of schedule and getting off to a hot start.

While expert ranks and cheat sheets are nice, those compilations don't always tell the whole story. There are adjustments that you should make after the fact, based on league scoring, injury history, schedule and more.

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You will find links to our individual player rankings below. You can also check out our top 150 player rankings and 2018 fantasy football draft kit.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers stars Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown and New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski all sit atop their individual positional rankings.

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While you shouldn't necessarily avoid stud players who have harsh schedules, it is something to consider if you can't decide between two options. The same goes for the aforementioned factors. In some circumstances, players are good enough to demand a start despite facing a tough opponent.

Here are my good gets and bad bets, based on possible schedule difficulties:

Good Get: Le'Veon Bell, Bad Bet: Todd Gurley

One of the reasons that I prefer Bell over Gurley this year has to do with schedule. Bell has three matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for fantasy points allowed to running backs in 2017. He also has just two matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for fewest points allowed to running backs in 2017.

Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley II (30) and quarterback Jared Goff head to the field for game against the New Orleans Saints on November 26 at the LA Coliseum in Los Angeles. Photo by Jon SooHoo/UPI

Gurley, although still a must-start every week, has four matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for fewest points allowed to the position last season. He has just one matchup against team that ranked inside the top five for most points allowed to running backs in 2017.

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Good Get: Julio Jones Bad Bet: Tyreek Hill

Saying that it's a good idea to draft Julio Jones isn't a revelation. But this year the Atlanta Falcons star should rebound well from a three touchdown season. This year, Matt Ryan's top target is my No. 9 player overall. This year he has five matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers in 2017. He has just two matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for fewest points allowed to the position.

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) could have a tough road ahead this season in fantasy football. File photo by Archie Carpenter/UPI

Kansas City Chiefs star Tyreek Hill is a big play machine. But I'm down on him for several reasons this year. I don't like his average draft position based on the unknown factor relating to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. I also don't like the fact that he has just one matchup against a team that ranked inside the top five for allowing the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in 2017. He has five matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for allowing the fewest points to the position. With about 13 games in a fantasy football regular season, you don't want a huge portion of that slate to be against shutdown defenses. While Hill is ranked No. 34 overall in my overall rankings, based on his incredible ceiling, I am staying away from him on draft day.

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Good Get: Jack Doyle Bad Bet: Tre Burton

Indianapolis Colts tight end Jack Doyle had a breakout year in 2017. This season I expect his stock to keep rising. Andrew Luck will likely be the biggest reason for that, but his schedule shouldn't hurt. Doyle has six matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends in 2017. He has two matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for allowing the fewest points to the position last season.

While Tre Burton is getting a ton of love in the fantasy football community ahead of a new role with the Chicago Bears, I'm no completely buying in. Of course Burton will be a big-time target for young quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, but don't get ahead of yourself on draft day and reach for the former Philadelphia Eagles pass catcher. The 6-foot-3, 235-pound target has two favorable matchups, based on the aforementioned stipulations. He has five matchups against teams that were the best at limiting fantasy football tight ends in 2017.

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Good Get: Andrew Luck Bad Bet: Ben Roethlisberger

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has enough red flags heading into the 2018 season that many owners will avoid the situation entirely on draft day. But schedule should not be a concern for you. Luck and the Colts have four matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for allowing the most points to quarterbacks. He has three games against teams that ranked inside the top five for limiting quarterback fantasy points in 2017.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin(C), Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) and quarterback Landry Jones (3) watch a scoreboard replay during the third quarter of the 16-6 preseason win against the Tennessee Titans on August 25 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. Photo by Archie Carpenter/UPI

While Ben Roethlisberger might have the best offensive weapons in football, his accuracy has been falling, while his interceptions remain a deterrent for drafting him. This year, you should also take a look at his schedule. "Big Ben" has just two 'money' matchups in 2018, based on the teams that allowed the most points to quarterbacks last season. He has four games against teams that ranked inside the top five for limiting quarterback fantasy points in 2017.

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Good Get: Matt Ryan Bad Bet: Patrick Mahomes

Bounce back is a term often thrown around when talking about elite football talents after a down year. I expect Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan to come closer to his 2016 NFL MVP campaign stats than the lackluster showing he put up in 2017. Julio Jones will be a big part of that. The Falcons also snagged former Alabama star Calvin Ridley in the 2018 NFL Draft. In terms of schedule, Ryan has two money matchups based on my calculations. He only has one matchup against a team that ranked inside the top five for limiting quarterback fantasy points in 2017. Ryan is a terrific value if you choose to wait on a quarterback.

I mentioned my reasons earlier for staying away from Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill, but I also recommend caution when drafting rookie Patrick Mahomes. The No. 10 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft obviously has a cannon for an arm, but he could also lead the league in interceptions. Mahomes also doesn't have an easy road to a succesful fantasy campaign in 2018. The Chiefs gunslinger has two matchups against teams who were most generous at allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. He has four matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for limiting quarterback fantasy points.

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Good Get: Travis Kelce Bad Bet: Kyle Rudolph

Had your fill of bad news on Kansas City Chiefs players? Well, here is someone you should draft from the AFC West squad: Travis Kelce. The three-time Pro Bowl selection had a career-high eight touchdowns in 2017. He also had his second consecutive season with at least 1,000 yards and 80 receptions. Kelce has five money matchups against teams that were generous in allowing fantasy points to tight ends in 2017. He also has just two matchups against the teams that were the best at limiting the position's fantasy points last season.

Minnesota Vikings veteran Kyle Rudolph doesn't have a schedule filled with teams on either side of the equation when it came to limiting tight end fantasy points in 2017. But that in itself isn't great. Rudolph is reliable, starting 16 games in each season since 2015. He also scored eight times last season. But I don't see Rudolph exploding this year with new quarterback Kirk Cousins, with Dalvin Cook demanding carries and catches and two talented wide receivers getting looks. Rudolph has one money matchup in 2018 and has two matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends in 2017.

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Good Get: Keelan Cole Bad Bet: Jordy Nelson

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Keelan Cole is a great draft day target. He is a good value based on his average draft position and he should see plenty of looks from Blake Bortles following the loss of Marqise Lee for the season and offseason departure of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. Cole also has four money matchups against one harsh face off, based on fantasy points allowed to the position in 2017.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Keelan Cole makes a catch in front of Pittsburgh Steelers defenders Artie Burns and Joe Haden (21) during the AFC Divisional round playoff game on January 14 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. Photo by Aaron Josefczyk/UPI

While Jordy Nelson was a longtime fantasy football star during his time with the Green Bay Packers, don't expect a resurgence with the Oakland Raiders. While I do expect Nelson to grab a handful of touchdowns while playing opposite Amari Cooper, he won't do it consistently enough to know when to put him in your starting lineup. Nelson also has a brutal schedule if you consider last season's defensive stats against wide receivers. Nelson has two money matchups, but he has five matchups against teams that ranked inside the top five for allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position.

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Great Buys and Red Flags - More Running Backs

$ - Denotes games vs. worst 5 defenses in fantasy points allowed vs. position in 2017, X - Denotes games vs. top 5 defenses in points allowed vs. position in 2017

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers, $$$$$/XXX

Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins, $$$$/X

Alex Collins, Baltimore Ravens, $$$$/XX

Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $$/XXXXX

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $$/XXXXX

Adrian Peterson, Washington Redskins, $/XXXXX

Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints, $$$$$/XXXXXX

Draft Them Anyway: Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown, Alvin Kamara, Juju Smith-Schuster, Jamaal Williams, Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman, Amari Cooper

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