Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots: Prediction, preview, pick to win

ATLANTA FALCONS (3-2) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-2)

KICKOFF: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium. TV: NBC, Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya (field reporter).

SERIES HISTORY: 14th regular-season meeting. Patriots lead series, 7-6. The most notable battle in this series is clearly last February's epic comeback win for New England to secure its fifth Lombardi Trophy in overtime in Super Bowl LI. That win was the fifth straight by the Patriots dating to 2001. Prior to that, Atlanta had won four in a row and six of seven. The last meeting in Foxborough was a 26-10 win by the Patriots in September 2009.

KEYS TO THE GAME: The Patriots enter this Super Bowl rematch with the NFL's No. 1 offense, but the unit has not been cruising quite as smoothly of late. Tom Brady and Co. have been held to 24 points or fewer in each of the last two weeks, a stretch the team never faced last season as New England was held below 25 points in just three of the 12 games with Brady under center.

While Brady and the passing attack have sputtered just a bit, New England's dormant ground game is showing signs of life. Both Mike Gillislee (despite his fumble against the Jets) and Dion Lewis have been far more productive the last two weeks.

New England's budding balance faces a tough Falcons defense. Look for Josh McDaniels to come out firing through the air. Assuming Brady gets the improved protection he saw Sunday in New York against a tougher pass rush, he'll be looking to hit more short and intermediate throws against the Falcons' speedy, aggressive defense.

The Patriots' run defense showed improvement against New York but faces a much tougher test against with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. The ground game has been the more consistent part of the Falcons' attack, tallying over 600 yards and six touchdowns in five games.

With the Patriots' pass defense having allowed six straight opponents to throw for more than 300 yards, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are a tough matchup. Ryan hasn't been at his best early in 2017, having already thrown six interceptions, while Jones has yet to find the end zone despite leading Atlanta with 25 catches.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Falcons RBs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman vs. Patriots run defense. New England's run defense is coming off its best game of the year in New York, holding the Jets to barely 3 yards per carry. DT Alan Branch looked more like his productive 2016 self a week after being a healthy scratch. But the Falcons are one of the more productive running games in the NFL right now, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Freeman (4.5) and Coleman (5.6) each have runs longer than 35 yards and have combined for six rushing scores. This is a big test for a New England front seven that appears to be on the come in recent weeks.

Patriots OL vs. Falcons LB Vic Beasley Jr. New England's pass protection was better against the Jets, but OT Nate Solder and Co. face a different beast with the now-healthy Beasley. The linebacker led the NFL a year ago with 15.5 sacks and has a pair this season, despite missing two-plus games to a hamstring injury. In Super Bowl LI, New England held Beasley to just one QB hit. The line has struggled this season but can take a step forward against Beasley and a fast Falcons front that has 12 sacks and 28 QB hits in five games.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore. New England's big-money free-agent addition has not gotten off to a great start. He has struggled with communication issues and sat out last week due to a concussion. With CB Eric Rowe already dealing with a pretty significant groin injury, the Patriots' 32nd-ranked pass defense needs to get Gilmore back on the field and playing up to his Pro Bowl resume and paycheck.

FAST FACTS: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan completed 17 of 23 for 284 yards, two TDs and no INTs (a 144.1 rating) in the Super Bowl. In his past 10 road games, he has 2,978 passing yards (297.8 per game), 22 TDs and six INTs. He has thrown a TD pass in 24 consecutive games, the NFL's longest active streak. He also has 200 passing yards in 60 consecutive games, the longest streak in NFL history. ... In his past six games vs. AFC teams (including the Super Bowl), RB Devonta Freeman has 606 scrimmage yards and five rushing TDs. He leads the NFC with five rushing TDs this season. ... WR Julio Jones has 53 catches for 822 yards and three TDs in his past eight games vs. the AFC. He has 602 yards and two TDs in his past six road games. ... In five career meetings (including the Super Bowl), Patriots QB Tom Brady has 1,659 passing yards (331.8 per game), 11 TDs and two INTs. He leads the NFL with 1,959 passing yards this season. ... RB James White set a Super Bowl record with 14 catches against the Falcons. He scored three TDs. He leads the team and ranks second among NFL RBs with 33 catches this season. ... WR Chris Hogan has five TD catches in his past five games and seven in his past eight home games (including playoffs). ... TE Rob Gronkowski caught two TD passes last week. He has 15 games with at least two, third-most by a tight end in NFL history.

PREDICTION: This is a bad matchup for the Patriots' defense, which looks incapable of containing all of Atlanta's offensive playmakers. And the Falcons have a Super axe to grind.

OUR PICK: Falcons, 31-28.

--Chris Cluff