NFL Playoffs divisional round: preview and analysis for every game

Home teams won all four first-round playoff games by at least two touchdowns and are favored to win all the games again this weekend. But the point spreads are narrow (except for New England against Houston) and history tells us to expect at least one upset.

Since the current format began in 1990, not once have home teams won all eight games on the first two weekends. In fact, since 2002, home teams have won seven games on the first two weekends only once. That occurred in 2011, when the only road winner the first two weekends was the New York Giants at Green Bay in a second-round game.

As with so many aspects of the NFL, the equation has been upended by free agency and reduced practice time. Teams frequently do not jell until late in the year and then get on a roll, so the overall records (and home-field advantage that goes with the records) tend to mean less now than they did years ago. As an example, in that 2011 game, the Giants had a 9-7 season and the Packers had been 15-1. New York won, 37-20, and went on to win the Super Bowl.

The time required to assimilate free agents into teams is not the only factor, but it's a key one. In the first 13 years of the current format, which included the early years of free agency, home teams won 73.1 percent of the first round games and 82.7 percent of the second round games. In the last 13 years, all in the free agency era, those percentages dropped to 51.9 and 65.4.

While the home teams probably will not win all four games, there is still the possibility of another first - a championship game weekend featuring four quarterbacks who have Super Bowl rings. Never happened, but could occur this year with Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers), Pittsburgh (Ben Roethlisberger), New England (Tom Brady) and Seattle (Russell Wilson). In fact, would anyone be shocked if they turned out to be the final four?

With all that in mind, here's a look at the weekend games, in the order they will be played:

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons:

This should be a terrific match of strength against strength: Atlanta's offense vs. Seattle's defense.

Quietly, perhaps, the Falcons' Matt Ryan was the league's top-rated passer. Atlanta was the only team in the NFL to rank among the top five in both rushing and passing, and led the league in scoring. But Seattle was the only playoff team to rank among the top 10 against both the run and the pass, and only the Patriots and Giants allowed fewer points.

These teams played a terrific October game at Seattle, which the Seahawks won, 26-24, scoring nine points in the final five minutes after blowing a 14-point lead. The winning points were set up by an Earl Thomas interception of a first down pass by Ryan with 3:57 remaining, an inexplicable blunder by the quarterback at a time the Falcons could have been working to run out the clock. But that's the story line of this game, strength vs. strength.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots:

On paper, this one looks like a blowout and it probably will be. The Patriots won a regular season meeting, 27-0, in September, and that was during the time Brady was suspended and Houston still had J.J. Watt in the lineup.

With Brady instead of Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, it will be a tougher hill to climb for the Texans. Houston was encouraged by Brock Osweiler's performance against the Raiders last week, but this one looks like the only sure thing of the weekend.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

In early October, the Steelers crushed the Chiefs, 43-14, at home, a rare blowout for a team which saw its other three losses this season come by a combined 11 points. The Steelers have won eight games in a row and the Chiefs are 10-2 since their loss to Pittsburgh.

Kansas City's defense had no answers for either Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in that earlier game, which Pittsburgh led, 36-0, early in the third quarter. Bell has rushed for 1,002 yards and eight touchdowns in the last seven games he played.

The Chiefs are hardly without hope, however. Roethlisberger, good as he has been at times, has thrown at least two interceptions in three of his last four games, and Kansas City led the league in both interceptions and turnover differential. Andy Reid's coaching record also is worth a note; in 11 previous playoff trips, his team won its first game eight times.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

The Packers have won seven straight games since Aaron Rodgers issued his "what, me worry" declaration when they started 4-6. In those seven, Rodgers has thrown 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions while passing for 2,029 yards. And he'll face a Dallas defense that, while No. 1 against the run in the NFL, ranked 26th against the pass.

But Rodgers seems certain to miss tight end Jordy Nelson, his great security blanket.

Dak Prescott is attempting to become the first rookie quarterback to take a team to the Super Bowl, and while the Packers' defense is not strong (31st against the pass), defensive coordinator Dom Capers is one of the best at what he does, and is certain to show Prescott some things he never has seen. Unfortunately for Capers, he also has to stop running back Ezekiel Elliott, who rushed for 157 yards when Dallas beat Green Bay, 30-16, in October.

History is something of an "X" factor in this matchup, too. The Packers have a miserable history of playing at Dallas. They won a one-point decision in 2013, their first road win over the Cowboys in nearly a quarter-century, ending a nine-game losing streak.

Ira Miller is an award-winning sportswriter who has covered the National Football League for more than five decades and is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Selection Committee. He is a national columnist for The Sports Xchange.