Indianapolis Colts vs Oakland Raiders: prediction, preview, pick to win

KICKOFF:

Saturday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Oakland Coliseum. TV: CBS, Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson.

SERIES HISTORY:

14th meeting. The Raiders lead the series, 7-6. This game marks the 39th anniversary of the Raiders' historic 37-31 double-overtime playoff victory against the Colts, who were then in Baltimore. That game remains the fifth longest in NFL history and included the Ghost to the Post pass from Ken Stabler to Dave Casper. While that 42-yard pass gained a nickname, it was a 10-yard pass from Stabler to Casper 43 seconds into the second overtime that decided the game, 37-31, on that Christmas eve. The Raiders flew back to Oakland, landing in the wee hours of Christmas Day 1977, Stabler's 32nd birthday. That was the last playoff win for future Hall of Famers Stabler and coach John Madden.. The Raiders lost the AFC Championship game a week later in Denver.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

Playoff picture -- Raiders have clinched a playoff berth. Oakland clinches AFC West division title and a first-round bye with: 1. OAK win plus KC loss or tie OR 2. OAK tie plus KC loss.

The list of things necessary to put the Colts in the playoffs is too long to even attempt. Try back next week. Tennessee and Houston each must lose both remaining games for the Colts to have a shot.

The Raiders are in and trying to get that first-round bye, but are concerned over the injured pinky of QB Derek Carr. Since the Nov. 27 injury, the Raiders have run 231 plays from either the shotgun or pistol formations, where the quarterback is at least four yards behind the center.

The inability to take a snap over center limits the running game. Although most of the same plays can be run from the pistol, the timing is different and often reduces the momentum of that back after a handoff.

Coach Jack Del Rio conceded the exclusivity of shotgun snaps in the red zone were problematic.

"It's an issue we're working through," Del Rio said. "At some point when we feel better about going under center, we will."

Since the injury, Carr has completed 53.3 percent of his passes (65 of 122) for 721 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions, a passer rating of 75.2. A passer rating that was 101.2 at the time of the injury has dropped to 95.2.

The Colts are concerned about the health of their own beat-up QB, especially against a Raiders defensive front that is terrorizing offenses. The Colts' offensive line has allowed 40 sacks this year, with QB Andrew Luck getting sacked 37 times.

However, the same Raiders defense is also vulnerable, ranking 26th in the league in generosity as measured by yards yielded per game. The Raiders will be without standout rookie safety Karl Joseph (toe) and DT Stacey McGee (knee), but on Friday they activated DE Mario Edwards Jr. from injured reserve, where he was since Sept. 5 with a hip problem. The 2015 second round draftee started 10 games as a rookie and collected two sacks, three forced fumbles and looked like a playmaker before injured in week 15.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Raiders WR Michael Crabtree vs. Colts CB Rashaan Melvin. If recent weeks are any indication, Vontae Davis will spend much of his time following Amari Cooper, who will probably also draw occasional additional help. That will leave Crabtree, who leads the Raiders with 77 catches (for 966 yards) and eight touchdowns, with some one-on-one coverage. And Crabtree has unquestionably made the most important catches for the Raiders all season, from Week 1 (a two-point conversion to win) to Week 15 (a 13-yard touchdown from Derek Carr).

--Raiders DE Khalil Mack and LB Bruce Irvin vs. Colts LT Anthony Costanzo. Costanzo has started all 14 games for the Colts at left tackle on an OL that has undergone plenty of switching and substituting because of injuries. He will have his hands full with either Mack or Irvin, whom the Raiders will often flop to gain matchup advantages. Mack has 11 sacks and had eight pressures last week when his eight-game streak with a sack was snapped. Irvin has seven sacks, including five in his last five games and two against the Chargers.

FRIDAY INJURY REPORT

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

--Out: LB Chris Carter (shoulder)

--Questionable: CB Rashaan Melvin (knee), T Joe Reitz (back)

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Out: LB Shilique Calhoun (knee, placed on IR Friday), S Karl Joseph (toe), DT Stacy McGee (ankle)

--Questionable: WR Amari Cooper (shoulder), WR Michael Crabtree (finger), G Kelechi Osemele (ankle), LB Perry Riley (hamstring), LB Malcolm Smith (hamstring), DT Dan Williams (foot)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Colts rookie OT Le'Raven Clark. After struggling during training camp and the preseason, Clark had been relegated to the bench for most of the season. He had seen spot playing time, but the number of plays were few. So it came as somewhat of a surprise that Clark played as well as he did in the Colts' 34-6 win at Minnesota last week. He got the start when veteran OT Joe Reitz was forced to miss the game with a back injury. Clark held his own against one of the NFL's better defensive fronts.

FAST FACTS:

Colts QB Andrew Luck has eight TD passes and two interceptions in his past three games. Since 2012, he has 128 TD passes, third most by an NFL player in his first five seasons.

Colts RB Frank Gore, who spent most of his career across the bay with the 49ers, rushed for 101 yards last week. He has 1,142 yards from scrimmage this season and is one of four in NFL history with 1,000 in at least 11 seasons.

Raiders QB Derek Carr has thrown 13 TD passes and three INTs in the last eight games.

Raiders RB Latavius Murray is tied for fourth in the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns.

Oakland WR Amari Cooper ranks third in the AFC with 1,038 receiving yards.

PREDICTION:

Carr and Luck renew a rivalry they began as Texas high school stars. Carr won their only head-to-head meeting (31-29) and, bad pinky notwithstanding, should reprise his prep success on Saturday.

OUR PICK: Raiders, 35-28.

--Frank Cooney